Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the 2026 French Open women’s singles title.
French Open 2026: Exclusive Women’s Outright Tips
Women’s French Open: Iga Swiatek
Odds: 2.25
World ranking (as of May 18): 3
Tournament history: SF-W-W-W-QF-W-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 6 times
Claycourt form: SF Rome, L32 Madrid, QF Stuttgart
A modern claycourt great – only Chris Evert and Steffi Graf have won more French Open titles in the Open Era than Swiatek’s four. However, she looks vulnerable on recent form. Three of her four previous RG titles were prefaced by WTA victories but, as was the case last year, she failed to win any of the warm-up events.
There were some encouraging signs in Rome recently but Swiatek still ended up losing to Elina Svitolina at the semi-final stage. Will need to lean on her experience and certainly should not be written off, but she’s favourite on past reputation it seems.
Women’s French Open: Aryna Sabalenka
Odds: 2.3
World ranking: 1
Tournament history: RU-QF-SF-3R-3R-3R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
Claycourt form: L32 Rome, QF Madrid
The world number one won 26 of her first 27 matches of 2026, albeit the one loss came in the biggest match – the Australian Open final. Still, a fine campaign looked in the offing but she arrives in Paris having lost two of her last three after suffering shock defeats on clay to Hailey Baptiste and Sorana Cirstea.
One of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour, Sabalenka is usually hard to beat the Slams and her backers tend to get a run for their money – the Belarusian has reached the semis or better at 12 of the last 13 majors. She is yet to win the French Open, however, and you wonder if she’s just slipped off her peak at just the wrong time.
Women’s French Open: Elena Rybakina
Odds: 4.6
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 4R-QF-3R-3R-QF-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2026 Australian Open & 2022 Wimbledon
Claycourt form: QF Rome, L16 Madrid, W Stuttgart
For the second time in three years, Rybakina won the indoor clay event in Stuttgart, although she’s enjoyed less success at the outdoor warm-ups. Her serve is one of the best in the women’s game and helped her capture the Australian Open title in January, returning to the Grand Slam winners’ circle after more than three years away from it. However, that shot doesn’t get as much cut-through on the clay as it does on other surfaces and I feel there are plenty more likely winners in this field.
Women’s French Open: Coco Gauff
Odds: 5.6
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: W-SF-QF-RU-QF-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2025 French Open & 2023 US Open
Claycourt form: RU Rome, L16 Madrid, QF Stuttgart
The French Open has been Gauff’s most successful Grand Slam – she’s made the quarter-finals or better at the last five editions and returns to Paris in 2026 as the defending champion. Dealing with that position can be tough but Gauff is nothing if not a battler.
Technical flaws often hurt her game – double-faults are a common problem while the forehand is prone to break down – but the American’s stickability often gets her through such situations. Three times in Rome she came from a set down to win but couldn’t repeat the trick in the final against Elina Svitolina. Still, her efforts in the Eternal City will have served her well as she heads to Roland Garros.
Women’s French Open: Mirra Andreeva
Odds: 5.6
World ranking: 8
Tournament history: QF-SF-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Semi-finalist, 2024 French Open
Claycourt form: QF Rome, RU Madrid, SF Stuttgart, W Linz
Andreeva made the semis here when only 17 and she remains a teenager despite having accumulated plenty of experience – this will be her 13th Grand Slam main draw appearance. She made an early foray onto the clay and has plenty of momentum coming into this tournament having won 15 of her 18 claycourt matches thus far.
Two of the defeats came at the hands of her title rivals here, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina, but Iga Swiatek was toppled in Stuttgart. Andreeva is coached by a former French Open finalist in Conchita Martinez and if she plays to her best, she is capable of contending. The most likely outcome though remains a second-week exit with Andreeva still searching for her first Grand Slam final.
Women’s French Open: Best of the Rest
Elina Svitolina (8.2) holds strong claims having played so well at the recent warm-up event in Rome. She beat Rybakina, Swiatek and Gauff in the last three rounds to emerge as champion and I’m a little surprised she’s not further up the market. The Ukrainian, also a semi-finalist in Stuttgart, boasts some of the best defence in the game and has reached the quarter-finals here on five previous occasions.
Now 31, a mother, and husband to former French star Gael Monfils, Svitolina would be a fairytale winner of this title. Karolina Muchova (13.8) always warrants respect, although you never know how she’s going to be physically. The Czech, who reached the final here three years ago, has been in good form in the early months of 2026 and recently beat both Gauff and Svitolina to reach the Stuttgart final.
She withdrew from Madrid in a bid to protect her frail body and while she then lost early in Rome, defeat to the in-form Anastasia Potapova should not be too off-putting. Could be worth siding with. Finally, for those seeking a big price, consider backing Hailey Baptiste (42.0). She’s been a relatively late bloomer but appears to be making up for lost time, with the 24-year-old having recently beaten world number one Aryna Sabalenka in Madrid, not to mention Belinda Bencic and Jasmine Paolini.
That followed a quarter-final run in Miami. The American reached the last 16 here in Paris 12 months ago and has the game style to cause problems. She likes the slice and the kick-serve, elements she says she learned by playing regular with boys when growing up. Don’t be surprised if she is still around come week two.
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