Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the French Open 2026 men’s singles title.
Men’s French Open 2026: Outright Picks
French Open 2026: Jannik Sinner
Odds: 1.12
World ranking (as of May 18): 1
Tournament history: RU-SF-2R-4R-4R-QF
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
Claycourt form: W Rome, W Madrid, W Monte Carlo
Even in Rafael Nadal’s hey day, I don’t think the ‘King of Clay’ ever went off as short as Sinner will at this year’s French Open. With his main rival, Carlos Alcaraz, out injured, Sinner has proved he’s streets ahead of the rest at the moment by becoming only the second player (after Nadal) to win the three Masters 1000 claycourt events in the same season.
Heads to Paris on a 29-match win streak and chasing the career Grand Slam, having narrowly missed out on this title during last year’s classic final with Alcaraz. Should put that right 12 months on – it looks like only injury can stop Sinner at the moment.
French Open 2026: Alexander Zverev
Odds: 4.2
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: QF-RU-SF-SF-SF-4R-QF-QF-1R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 3 times
Claycourt form: L16 Rome, RU Madrid, SF Munich, SF Monte Carlo
Zverev has consistently reached the latter stages of tournaments in 2026 but he keeps losing at the business end and arrives at Roland Garros without a title in more than a year. Those ‘late’ losses are also reflected in his Grand Slam record with 10 semi-finals now reached but that major title remains elusive.
Zverev appears to lack the ability to play his best tennis when it really matters, although if he is to finally break that Slam duck then Roland Garros is probably the most likely venue. This is Zverev’s best Slam numerically and he reached the final here two years ago. He’ll be seeded to avoid Sinner until the final but if they do meet, it’s hard to see Zverev winning after he claimed just three games against the Italian in the recent Madrid final.
French Open 2026: Novak Djokovic
Odds: 5.75
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: SF-QF-W-QF-W-RU-SF-QF-QF-W-RU-RU-SF-RU-SF-QF-3R-SF-SF-QF-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
Claycourt form: L64 Rome
The three-time champion hasn’t lost before the quarter-finals at Roland Garros since 2009. That is a remarkable record but all good things come to an end and this may well be the year. Djokovic has played just one claycourt match coming into this event – losing to qualifier in Rome – and while he has famously delivered a high standard of tennis with little preparation in recent years, it is harder for him to do so on this surface which has never been his most natural. The good news is there’s no Alcaraz for him to deal with but the gruelling nature of claycourt tennis may prove the undoing of a player who will be 39 when the tournament gets under way.
French Open 2026: Arthur Fils
Odds: 8.8
World ranking: 19
Tournament history: 3R-1R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: R4, Wimbledon 2024
Claycourt form: L64 Rome, SF Madrid, W Barcelona
Take away Alcaraz’s career Grand Slam, completed at the Australian Open, and Sinner’s efforts since, and Fils is arguably the story of the season thus far. He’s returned after a lengthy injury absence in fine style in 2026 and has racked up a 22-7 win-loss record. On the clay, he’s won in Barcelona and it took Sinner to halt his nine-match winning streak in Madrid.
The main worry for potential backers is a recent injury retirement in Rome but he’s since said “all is clear” on that front. Another is a poor Grand Slam record – he’s yet to reach a quarter-final at any of the majors. Still, he’s also never headed into one on the back of a such a good run. Will doubtless be well supported by the home fans, who remain desperate to see their first men’s singles champion since Yannick Noah in 1983.
French Open 2026: Casper Ruud
Odds: 9.2
World ranking: 17
Tournament history: 2R-SF-RU-RU-3R-3R-3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 3 times
Claycourt form: RU Rome, QF Madrid, L16 Monte Carlo
Having slipped down the rankings, the Norwegian looks to be on his way back. He played some fine tennis in Rome last week to reach the final and secure a return to the world’s top 20. Clay has always been his surface this tournament will be the pinnacle of his season. He’s twice been to the final in Paris and he’ll be hoping it’s a case of third time lucky. Play as he did in Rome and he will have a chance, although again the spectre of Sinner looms – Ruud has now lost to him five times out of five and is yet to win a set. Boasts an underrated serve and a strong forehand.
French Open 2026: Best of the Rest
Of all the players who will be in this field, it is arguably Daniil Medvedev (17.0) who has the best chance of toppling Sinner. While that may seem strange given some of the things the Russian has said about playing on clay in the past, he certainly tested Sinner in Rome recently, pushing him to a deciding set.
He was also close to the Italian in Indian Wells earlier in the season, losing only in two tie-breaks and holding his serve throughout that final. Unlike many, he doesn’t seem mentally fazed by the challenge of facing the world number one, while physically he is ready to grind it out in long rallies and boasts some of the best defence in the game. While Medvedev isn’t a clay natural, he is a former champion in Rome, while he’s made the quarter-finals at Roland Garros before.
Further down the market, Martin Landaluce (98.0) is an emerging talent, who may surprise a few in Paris. The 20-year-old Spaniard was a quarter-finalist in Miami earlier this season and he arrives at this event having just made the last eight in Rome. Reaching the real business end may be beyond the youngster and there’s little doubt his compatriot Rafael Jodar (9.9) holds stronger claims.
However, his price has collapsed in recent weeks following a string of impressive displays on the clay. Jodar has won 15 of 18 matches since hitting the surface, claiming three top-25 scalps in that period and winning his maiden ATP title in Marrakech. Hard to back at the price now but looks to have a genuine chance of going deep in this event.
By Andy Schooler
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