After a couple of winners in the FA Cup final, Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s Europa League final between Aston Villa and Freiburg.
Europa League Final 2026: Andy Schooler’s Big Game Tips
Villa look worthy favourites here. They’ve won 12 of their 14 Europa League games this season with one of the losses coming against Premier League rivals Nottingham Forest. They’ve already locked down Champions League qualification so this is, thankfully, all about trophy glory for them.
Freiburg will be chasing heir first-ever trophy and also need the win if they are to play in next season’s Champions League. They finished only seventh in the Bundesliga with away form being a big issue. While they were a match for anyone at home, away they won only four times. Notably, against the top sides they really struggled – they lost all seven against their fellow top-eight sides by an aggregate of 2-20.
In Europe, those problems weren’t so obvious but they were still there – just two wins in seven away from their Europa-Park Stadium, with defeats suffered at Braga and Genk in the knockout stage. The problem is Villa are just 1.57 to win in 90 minutes and that’s not a price I’m really in the business of tipping up. There may be better value in backing the English side to win ‘to nil’. After all, six of those seven domestic losses to the top sides saw Freiburg fail to score, while four of Villa’s six KO phase matches have won this bet. If pushed, I’d go with this but 2.4 isn’t a price big enough to interest me.
Europa League Final 2026: Goalscorers
There’s a prime candidate in the anytime scorer market and that’s Villa’s Ollie Watkins. He appears to have been fully motivated by his omission from England’s last squad in March with his form surging since.
Watkins has scored 11 goals in his last 14 appearances and has already bagged five in this competition despite reduced opportunities. Up against a defence which hasn’t been able to keep out the best teams this season, the England man gets the nod at 2.4. Whether he receives it from Thomas Tuchel on Friday remains to be seen.
Europa League Final 2026: Best Bets
There doesn’t look a great deal of value around Villa in the shot markets. Perhaps the one bet I’d consider is John McGinn for 2+ shots at 1.7 given he’s full of confidence after netting three goals in his last three games. He managed three shots in the semi-final, second-leg win over Nottingham Forest and then four against Burnley in the league so has landed this in two of his last three. However, preference would be to back Johan Manzambi for 3+ for Freiburg.
The Swiss international done this in seven of his last 10 starts despite having his midfield role changed to a more defensive one in several games. On this occasion, the absence of the injured Yuito Suzuki makes an attacking midfield role more likely and, if the game unfolds as the bookies expect with Villa getting their noses in front, it would be no surprise to see the Germans pushing forward late on with Manzambi trying his luck around the box. 3+ shots is a 2.35 chance, while 7.0 to score might interest a few too. He has seven goals so far this season.
For those after a big-priced interest, try a small-stakes punt on Mattias Ginter to assist. He’s out at almost 10/1 for this, largely because he’s a centre-back, but only two of his team-mates have more assists in 2025/26. Ginter has definitely managed four in his last 24 games – and some metrics would have that up as five after his header hit the bar and was then converted during Saturday’s win over Leipzig.
Having played occasionally as a full-back, he’s not afraid to get forward, while Ginter is certainly a target from set-plays where several of assists this season have come from. The reason for the chunky price has to be Freiburg’s position as clear underdogs but if Villa are to concede, it could well be that they are most vulnerable from a set piece.
Europa League Final Best Bets: Freiburg v Aston Villa
Ollie Watkins anytime scorer @ 2.4 with kwiff
Johan Manzambi 3+ shots @ 2.35 with kwiff
Mattias Ginter 1+ assist @ 10.36 with kwiff
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