The FIFA World Cup is almost upon us – Andy Schooler takes a look at the main outright markets and delivers his best bets, exclusively for kwiff.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Andy Schooler’s Outright Preview
While Greece famously won the European Championship as 100/1 shots in 2004, the World Cup has long been dominated by teams towards the top of the market. So far this century, there has been just the one winner at odds north of 7/1 and that was Italy, who were still only 10/1 when they triumphed in 2006. Ahead of the 2026 edition, there are six sides shorter than 10/1.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Tournament Winner
I’ll immediately eliminate England, who I have serious reservations about in the heat and humidity of the USA (as well as the altitude of Mexico, potentially). The hard-fought nature and style of the Premier League has long been cited as one of the reasons for the lack of success at international level. Nothing has changed on that front – indeed players like Declan Rice have been flogged into the ground during 2025/26 – and given the conditions, I don’t see them lifting the famous gold trophy next month.
Holders Argentina still have the vast majority of their 2022 winning side in place but that’s not necessarily a good thing – many key men are now well into the 30s with Lionel Messi about to hit 39. Brazil have plenty to prove after a very patchy qualifying campaign and manager Carlo Ancelotti is still searching for answers in terms of his formation, which has often veered to 4-2-4 and left his side exposed. I’d be worried if another aging star, Casemiro, is playing in a midfield two.
Portugal have a cracking midfield – arguably the best in the tournament – but they also still have Cristiano Ronaldo up front potentially holding them back. France face the opposite issue. They have huge talent in forward areas but are arguably below world class in midfield and we saw how they struggled to score goals at Euro 2024. That leaves the team I feel are the most likely winners and that’s Spain.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Super Spain
The European champions arrive at this tournament unbeaten in their last 31 competitive games, at least in regular play (they lost last summer’s Nations League final to Portugal on penalties). If you include friendlies, they are unbeaten in their last 29. They have world-class players with the likes of Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Pedri in their ranks, while we saw how effective Nico Williams was at the Euros two years ago.
Fabian Ruiz is another player I admire hugely – he gets forward into some really dangerous positions for Spain – and while the defence looks their weaker suit, it hardly looks a major problem. In any case, their possession-based style will see them keep plenty of the ball and spend less time chasing it – important in the expected conditions of many venues.
Having proved so tough to beat for several years now, I see similarities in terms of self-belief that Italy had heading into Euro 2020 when they were also on a long unbeaten run.
Italy lost Leanardo Spinazzola mid-tournament en route to the title, showing they could win without key men and I think that’s also the case with Spain, who have plenty of strength in depth so I’ll not overly concerned by their pre-tournament injury worries, which have included star man Yamal.
The likes of Martin Zubimendi, Dani Olmo and Mikel Merino (eight goals in 10 games for Spain in 2025) struggle to get into this side, while if wingers are needed to fill in, Spain have two good ones in Alex Baena and Victor Munoz. They look more than capable of doing a job. If they win the group (they have to see off Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde), Spain look well drawn. In that scenario, they wouldn’t have to face a fellow group winner until the last eight with that team most likely to be Belgium, at least according to the current odds.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Exciting Ecuador
Contrast that with France, who could well have to beat Germany and the Netherlands to reach the semis. Spain will be a bit too short for some but, for me, they are the most likely winner and warrant support. For those looking for a long shot, Ecuador may be worth some consideration. With Champions League winner Willian Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapie at the back, El Tri have a top-class defence, one which conceded only five goals in 18 qualifiers. Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo adds a defensive-midfield shield.
They finished second in the CONMEBOL standings behind Argentina, who they beat at home, and went unbeaten in the last 11, conceding just once. Overall, they arrive at this tournament unbeaten in 19. In short, Ecuador are going to be hard to break down and, therefore, defeat over the next few weeks. The problem is a weak attack – Enner Valencia is still leading the line at 36 and although he did manage to score six in qualifying, overall Ecuador found the net only 14 times in their 18 matches.
Still, that ability to grind out results could stand them in good stead in this event. I expect the strength-sapping conditions to produce some pretty turgid games and that may well suit Ecuador down to the ground. If the market is right and they finish second to Germany in Group E (Ivory Coast and Curacao are also in there), Ecuador’s route through the draw would send them to Dallas, New Jersey and Miami, some of the most brutal venues in terms of heat and humidity.
A stumbling block could be a last-16 meeting with Brazil, although it’s worth noting that Ancelotti’s men could only score once against Ecuador in two qualifying meetings. There have been several surprise teams in the last four of this competition in recent editions – Morocco four years ago, Croatia (2018), Netherlands (2014) and Uruguay (2010). If there’s going to be another in 2026, it could well be Ecuador, although I couldn’t bring myself to back them in a win-only market.
Best bet: Spain to win the World Cup @ 5.3 with kwiff
World Cup 2026: To Reach the Quarters
Given what I’ve just written, maybe some will fancy Ecuador to make the last eight at 5.1. However, my best bet in this market is another side I believe could make plenty of waves and that’s Turkey. They are a side on the up, one who showed plenty of promise when reaching the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. They since won promotion to the top tier of the UEFA Nations League and continue to grow, with some highly impressive young stars.
Chief among them is Arda Guler, who started to make a real impact at Real Madrid in the season just gone. He finished it by being named as the Champions League’s young player of the season and will now look to bring that form into the international arena. Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz is another youngster out of the top drawer and he’s being urged to “attack the box” more by his international manager, Vincenzo Montella.
In midfield, Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu runs the show, although he is ably supported by ball winner Orkun Kokcu, while raiding full-backs Zeki Celik and Ferdi Kadioglu offer plenty going both ways. The weakness looks to be at centre forward where there’s a lack of an out-and-out goalscorer but that hasn’t stopped them scoring plenty since the last Euros and the early phases of this tournament could have been a lot tougher. The Turks are in a group with USA, Paraguay and Australia. While that looks one of the most competitive, I also believe Turkey are best placed to come through it.
And should they finish top, they would meet a third-placed side in the last 32 before, probably, facing the winners of Group G for a spot in the quarter-finals. The odds make that most likely to be Belgium. It’s also wroth considering where those matches would take place – San Francisco and Seattle are expected to be two of the cooler cities on the schedule. In short, that looks a good route to the last eight and I’ll take a shot with Turkey at 4.3.
Best bet: Turkey to reach the quarter-finals @ 4.3 with kwiff
FIFA World Cup 2026: Golden Boot
The last seven World Cups were all played using a 32-team format but we’ve now expanded to 48. That means one more game for the eventual champions but the long-term Golden Boot trends are still look worth looking at. The winner has always scored at least five goals, the highest tally in the study period being eight. Six was the most common winning number, achieved by Harry Kane in 2018 and Jame Rodriguez in 2014. The average number of goals scored by the winner in the 32-team tournaments was 6.29.
Six of the seven winners also saw their team reach the last four and therefore play the maximum seven matches. As already mentioned, that maximum rises to eight here, although the extra burden, particularly in the expected conditions, would appear to increase the chances of star names being rested in the group stage – or at least withdrawn after, say, 65 minutes. In short, I’m not convinced that winner’s average has to rise.
It’s also worth looking at some of the details of previous winners. Those seven Golden Boot winners scored 44 goals, exactly half of which came in the group stage. It is often said these days that you need to side with a penalty taker, although only 16% of those 44 goals came via the spot. Three winners didn’t score a penalty at all, although the last two winners, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe, both netted multiple spot kicks en route to the award.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Golden Boot Winners
2022: Kylian Mbappe (RU) – 8 (3 in group stage; 2 penalties)
2018: Harry Kane (SF) – 6 (5 in group; 3 pens)
2014: James Rodriguez (QF) – 6 (3 in group, 1 pen)
2010: Thomas Muller (W) – 5 (1 in group, 0 pens)
2006: Miroslav Klose (SF) – 5 (4 in group, 0 pens)
2002: Ronaldo (W) – 8 (4 in group, 0 pens)
1998: Davor Suker (SF) – 6 (2 in group, 1 pen)
Looking at the winners’ profiles, ideally we want someone with a soft group in which they could rack up some early goals – five of the seven players above scored at least three times in the group stage – who also had a good chance of still being in action come the business end of the tournament. Perhaps understandably, the market looks to have the obvious candidates marked but of those I think Mikel Oyarzabal has a great chance.
The Spaniard almost fell into the role of central attacker for the Euro 2024 winners but he’s taken a full grip on the shirt. Twenty-four goals in 52 international appearances is a pretty decent tally but it looks much better with a ‘recent’ filter applied – the Real Sociedad star has 12 goals in his last 11 starts for Spain. Perhaps crucially, given that the Golden Boot winner is decided on assists if two or more players are level on goals scored, Oyarzabal assisted six times in that period.
With winger Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams an excellent supply line, Oyarzabal should get chances, especially if he starts in the group games against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia, which come on matchdays one and two. Of course, having already put Spain up in the win market, I understand people might not want to place both bets so if that’s the case, take your pick.
Looking a little further down the market – a lot of bigger-priced players have made the frame in the top-scorer list over the years – and a couple of names are worth a mention. For those for want an in-form player on side heading into the tournament, Donyell Malen has to be worth considering. His mid-season move to Roma sparked him into life and since his debut back in January only Harry Kane scored more goals in the ‘big five’ European leagues.
Malen bagged 14 in Serie A in that period and Opta’s detailed stats bring further encouragement, with the Dutchmen ranked first across those five divisions for expected goals, shots taken and shots on target. In short, he’s flying coming into this event and he’ll be playing for a Netherlands team who may be coming in under the radar a bit. They have a strong core of players that includes Virgil van Dijk, Jurien Timber, Denzil Dumfries and Micky van de Ven in a well-rounded defence.
Frenkie de Jong, Tijjani Reijnders and Ryan Gravenberch is a good-looking midfield and up front Memphis Depay is flanked by Malen and Cody Gakpo, both of whom love to cut in a get a shot off. Perhaps the goals will be shared around but I certainly think the Dutch have a chance of a decent run. Their group isn’t the easiest but they are still odds-on favourites to beat Japan, Sweden and Tunisia to first place, and rightly so. And if they do finish top, they won’t have to meet another group winner until the quarter-finals at the earliest (probably France).
FIFA World Cup 2026: Super Suarez
The other player from a little down the market who could go well at a big price is Colombian Luis Suarez. Despite being the second top-scorers in South America, centre-forward has been a bit of a problem area for Colombia but Suarez banged in four in the 6-3 win over Venezuela that secured qualification and he’s started virtually every game since. The Sporting Lisbon man notched again in last week’s 3-1 win over Costa Rica, staying in a scoring groove that saw him net 38 times during his first season in Portugal.
While Colombia are lacking in terms of being expected to go deep in the tournament, they do face DR Congo and Uzbekistan (as well as Portugal) in the group stage so the chance for early goals is there. With assist master James Rodriguez and Luis Diaz, fresh off an outstanding season for Bayern Munich, on hand to create chances, Suarez might just be able to make an impact.
Best bet: Malen top scorer @ 53.0 with kwiff
FIFA World Cup 2026: Group Winners
I’ve already mentioned Turkey in this preview and another angle for getting with them could be to win Group D. Hosts USA are favourites but that might be putting too much weight on home advantage with Turkey looking the better price to me at 2.65. That pool should be very competitive, as should Group D, comprised of co-hosts Mexico, South Korea, Czechia and South Africa.
This isn’t the best Mexican team there’s been and, again, they could be vulnerable favourites. The teamwork of the Czechs got them through the European play-offs and they will likely be tough to break down. In a tight group, they look a tad big at 4.4, although having to play twice at altitude is a concern. However, the most popular approach when it comes to the groups is often to pick an acca and so I’m going with a four-fold.
Switzerland are in with Canada, Bosnia and Qatar, and there looks a gulf in class there. The Swiss have a strong spine with Manuel Akanji part of a back line which conceded only twice as they eased through qualifying, Granit Xhaka controlling the midfield and Breel Embolo a lively threat up top. Next up, Brazil, who face Morocco, Scotland and Haiti in Group C. Only the Moroccans appear to be serious challengers but Brazil have the quality to top this section – they’ve actually won their group at every World Cup going back to 1978. They look good acca fodder.
Belgium should win Group G. Yes, they’ve let people down in the past but talk of their ‘golden generation’ has faded with expectations now much lower. They still boast plenty of high-level players though with Jeremy Doku off the back of an excellent season with Manchester City, Leandro Trossard buzzing after his efforts with Arsenal and the likes of Kevin de Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku remaining big dangers.
Egypt, Iran and New Zealand seem unlikely to stop them here. Finally, let’s go with Argentina in Group J. Algeria, Austria and Jordan are their opponents and while I think some of their aging stars may get found out in the latter stages, the Argentines should be too strong for this trio having topped South America’s qualifying table by some distance. The four-fold accumulator pays 3.35.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Bets Bets
Spain to win the World Cup @ 5.3 with kwiff
Switzerland, Brazil, Belgium & Argentina all to win their groups @ 3.35 with kwiff
Turkey to reach the quarter-finals @ 4.3 with kwiff
Donyell Malan World Cup Top Goalscorere @ 53.0 with kwiff
Turkey to reach the quarter-finals @ 4.3 with kwiff
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