We’ll be bringing a preview for every day of action at the FIFA World Cup. Andy Schooler kicks things off, with Mexico v South Africa top of the bill on Thursday. Read his exclusive preview in his daily previews for kwiff.
FIFA World Cup: Opening Day Best Bets, June 11th
With the USA seemingly intent on angering football fans across the globe, it’s probably a good thing that the 2026 FIFA World Cup is kicking off elsewhere. And in Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium, we have some proper tradition – this is a ground which has staged two World Cup finals, including the famous 1970 game in which Carlos Alberto scored what I consider to be one of the greatest goals of all time.
Brazil crushed Italy 4-1 that day but I’m not sure we’ll be getting that many goals in this contest. The opening game of this competition has tended to be a low-scoring affair over the years. Going back to 1966, 11 of the 15 such matches have seen under 2.5 goals. Eight of them have had under 1.5.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Mexico v South Africa
Group A, Mexico City (ITV, 8pm)
The low-goals trend has lessened in more recent times – Russia smashed in five against a poor Saudi Arabia in 2018 – and some will argue South Africa could go the same way. They were far from watertight in qualifying, conceding nine goals in 10 games. That’s hardly disastrous but a far cry from some of their fellow African sides.
At the other end, they’ve struggled, as shown in recent warm-up games with only one goals scored in two games against Nicaragua and Jamaica, neither of whom have qualified. Expect Bafana Bafana to sit deep and look to hit Mexico on the break, although whether they will be good enough at the back to implement a defensive plan is open to question. Mexico are unbeaten in eight coming in this tournament. Like all hosts, they lack recent competitive matches, although last time out in such a situation they lifted the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
More recently, they’ve had creditable draws with Portugal and Belgium, while warm-up friendlies have brought wins against Ghana, Australia and Serbia, the latter thrashed 5-1. They are worthy favourites, especially up at altitude in their capital, although I wouldn’t want to back them at 1.33. Aside from that Serbia game, they’ve often struggled for goals themselves with Fulham’s veteran Raul Jimenez still leading the line, despite the claims of Armando Gonzalez, who has just scored 24 times in 35 games in the Mexican league.
I’ll side with Mexico to win and under 2.5 goals which pays 2.4, although I know that won’t be a price for everyone. In the sub-markets, South African midfielder Teboho Mokoena should be involved plenty. He may well have plenty of containing work to do in this game and so his disciplinary record is worth noting – five cards in his last 16 competitive internationals.
With Brazilian referee Wilton Sampiao no stranger to dishing out a card, I think Mokoena is worth siding with in the anytime card market. Mokoena also loves a shot from distance – and takes some free kicks. He’s had over 1.5 shots in five of his last six competitive games for South Africa. That’s a 2.25 chance.
FIFA World Cup: South Korea v Czechia
Group A, Guadalajara (BBC, 3am)
Despite finishing behind Croatia in their qualifying group, the Czechs battled their way to these finals and I’m quite keen on their chances in what looks a pretty weak group in the grand scheme of things. Yes, it should be competitive, but there’s no standout side and Miroslav Koubek’s men will be disappointed if they don’t reach the knockout stage.
They are a proper ‘team’, working for each other despite the lack of individual stars. They showed that with their gritty victories over Ireland and Denmark in the play-offs, both of which were decided by penalty shoot-outs. They are a big, physically-imposing side, particularly adept at set-pieces – they scored the most goals from such situations in the UEFA qualifying section.
West Ham’s Tomas Soucek is a threat on that front but another player worth mentioning here is defender Stepan Chaloupek. Despite playing largely at centre-back, he scored no fewer than nine goals for Slavia Prague this season. If that number doesn’t impress you, perhaps this little nugget from Opta will – Chaloupek had the highest expected-goals per 90 minutes figure (0.35) of any centre-back playing in the top 10 European leagues in 2025/26. In short, he will be a target from corners and free-kicks here.
Admittedly, he’s yet to score for his country but he’s only started three games. For those seeking a big price, 15.0 about Chaloupek finding the net looks worth a try, while 1.8 about him having a shot also looks tempting. Korea were unbeaten in Asian qualifying but preparation has been a little concerning. Just three months before the tournament, they switched to a back three formation – and duly suffered heavy defeats to Brazil and Ivory Coast.
They’ve also lost to Austria since and struggled past El Salvador 1-0 last week. They do have quality in forward areas with Heung-min Son and PSG’s Kang-In Lee offering threat, but I still have doubts about them breaking down the Czechs. The market has the Koreans are marginal favourites but I take the opposing view and will back Czechia in the ‘draw no bet’ market.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Thursday June 11
Mexico to win & under 2.5 goals @ 2.4 with kwiff
Mokoena to be carded @ 3.4 with kwiff
Czechia draw-no-bet @ 1.9 with kwiff
Stepan Chaloupek 1+ goal @ 15.0 with kwiff
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