Andy Schooler previews Friday’s games at the FIFA World Cup with co-hosts USA and Canada both in action on day two. Read on for his exclusive daily previews, every day with kwiff.
FIFA World Cup 2026: June 12th 2026 Best Bets
I don’t have the stats to hand but matchday one of any tournament tends to go low on goals with cagey starts commonplace. Don’t lose your first game; give yourselves a platform for the rest of the group stage.
I can certainly see defences being on top in this one. When researching the tournament, one quote from Canada boss Jesse Marsch stuck with me.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Canada v Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group B, Toronto (BBC, 8pm)
“If you want to get out of the group, if you want to make a run, you have to be a strong defensive team that doesn’t give much away,” he said. You can see his focus will be on keeping things tight. Their last 10 games have seen under 2.5 goals, six of them under 1.5. At last summer’s CONCACAF Gold Cup, three of their four matches went under that 2.5 line.
Bosnia’s recent stats are also strong on this metric – their last five have gone under 2.5 on total goals. They scored only one goal across their warm-up matches with North Macedonia and Panama. That follows on from a fairly low-scoring qualifying campaign – none of Europe’s tournament qualifiers scored fewer than Bosnia (using per game stats). The issue is the under 2.5 goals price of 1.62 won’t be for everyone.
In the sub-markets, Nikola Katic is an interesting prospect in the shot markets. The Bosnian usually plays at centre-back, although it was notable that he moved into midfield for the recent friendly draw against Panama. He scored in that match and while I was unable to find shot stats for the game, in the six previous ones, he managed 2+ shots in four of them. Katic is Bosnia’s main aerial threat from set-plays and the Schalke star is at 3.12 for multiple shots in this contest. That looks worth a try.
FIFA World Cup 2026: USA v Paraguay
Group D, Los Angeles (BBC, 2am Sat)
Another low-scoring game could be on the cards here, certainly if Paraguay’s qualifying form is anything to go by.
Their 18 qualifiers in South America saw just 24 goals, 14 of which they scored themselves. Losing Julio Enciso for this one (as looks likely following his injury in a recent warm-up game) is another blow. He shoots from anywhere, as Premier League followers will know from his time with Brighton and Ipswich – I’ll be keeping an eye on the relevant markets if he returns or is a surprise starter here.
The problem with going down the ‘unders’ route is that USA’s games have seen plenty of goals – seven of the last eight have had both teams score, with 31 goals in total in those matches. Given that somewhat confusing picture, I’m heading off down another route. Of the South American qualifiers for this event, only Brazil picked up more cards than Paraguay and that’s angle I think could be exploited. Specifically, two men stand out in the player-card market.
First up is Andres Cubas, who is something of a card magnet in defensive midfield. He’s been carded in 10 of his last 19 competitive starts for Paraguay, while for his club – MLS side Vancouver Whitecaps – he’s already received seven cards in 14 appearances during the ongoing 2026 season. Thos numbers suggest even quotes of 2.55 could represent value, although I’m not really one for playing at those prices.
Instead, preference is for Junior Alonso, another who is no stranger to referees. Usually used at left-back, he’s been carded in 14 of his last 29 competitive internationals, yet is out at 3.5 for another here. The man with the whistle (and notebook) is Dutchman Danny Makkelie. One of Europe’s top refs, he’s not renowned for his card production in the Champions League but his international games have been somewhat higher. Eight of his last 13 have seen at least four cards, including three of four across Euro 2024 and the last World Cup.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Friday June 12
Under 2.5 goals in Canada v Bosnia @ 1.62 with kwiff
Nikola Katic 2+ shots @ 3.12 with kwiff
Junior Alonso to be carded @ 3.5 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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