Dave Massey is back on 2000 Guineas Day with his best Newmarket Racing Tips ahead of the first classic of the flat season. Read his latest preview exclusively for kwiff.
Newmarket Racing Tips: 2000 Guineas Day
If favourite Double Rush misfires, then who wins this? I keep looking at Stan Moore’s Brian (1.45), who I’m sure there’s a race for sooner rather than later; he stays further than this and his one visit to Newmarket, albeit on the July Course, was a winning one; he shaped a lot better than the bare result at Newbury last time, constantly finding traffic, even from quite early on, and finished with running left in him.
Newmarket Racing Tips: Brian (1:45)
Ironically, if he’d stayed far side, which is where winner Mirabeau came from, he might well have finished in the frame, but switching him to the middle of the track was the worst thing Tom Marquand could have done. He should come home strongly here, and could hit the frame at a price.
Newmarket Racing Tips: Erzindjan (2:20)
Botanical did too much too soon when fourth in the Lincoln but the ground has to be a huge concern, he has been withdrawn on very fast ground in the past, so the each-way swing is Erzindjan (2.20), fourth to Boiling Point in the Cambridgeshire last year, doing best of those drawn high. He ran right to form on reappearance last year when fourth in the John Smiths Handicap at York, and he loves quick ground. Plenty to like about his chance here.
Newmarket Racing Tips: Needle Match (3:35)
This is not, on paper, a good Guineas, with Gstaad, who had to be supplemented after O’Brien mistakenly took him out, the best of them on ratings, but any horse that was beaten three times as a 2yo surely has to be taken on. This is not a race that O’Brien wins, in any case, and 9-2 looks very short for one as exposed as he is.
Needle Match (3.35) is a big unit that would definitely come forward for the run at Newbury, and after a slow start (still green) wasn’t given the hardest of times, but was still closing in on Alparslan and the rest in the Greenham at the finish; does this race come too soon in his progression, or has he learnt enough? I’d be willing to chance it, given the uphill finish is going to suit him very well, and he’s going to be a 20-1 shot in a Guineas that looks open.
Newmarket Racing Tips: Gamrai (4:45)
This could be all about Gamrai (4.45), disappointing last year but much better (after being gelded) at Kempton on his reappearance, thrashing course specialist Whitcombe Rockstar by three lengths, barely breaking sweat to do so. He now needs to repeat that on turf, but he still looks fairly handicapped despite a 9lb rise, and is going to be hard to beat if he can.
The danger might be top weight Bellum Justum, dropping back into handicap company after some fair efforts at Group level, and he looked very rusty on his reappearance at Newbury after the best part of ten months off. 107 looks a fair mark based on his defeat of Silver Knott in the Jockey Club Stakes here last year and he loves quick ground, so keep him onside too.
Newmarket Racing Tips: Sterling Knight (5:55)
There’s a pretty obvious each-way play in here, namely Sterling Knight (5.55), who was fourth in this last year (drawn 1 then, stall 2 this year) and is 2lb lower this time around. Three runs this spring should now see him match fit, and he’s dropped 4lb whilst doing so; Ryan Moore is back on board, fast ground is ideal, and this has probably been his early-season target. Ought to go very close.
By Dave Massey
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