Friday sees the final set of games in the last 32 of the World Cup. Andy Schooler previews all three…
Australia v Egypt
Dallas (BBC, 7pm)
I’m going to try a few big prices on Friday, a day which will see the World Cup field whittled down to its last 16 teams.
Egypt are favourites to progress from this tie, although they are odds-against to win in 90 minutes, which goes to show the Aussies are not without hope.
They were well beaten by USA in the group stage but were highly competitive in their other games, beating Turkey and having the better of a suits-all draw with Paraguay.
Egypt have looked vulnerable at times and Iran were certainly unlucky not to beat them last time out. In each of their group games, the Pharaohs’ expected goals against (xGA) figure has been above their actual number of goals conceded. In that 1-1 draw with Iran, it was up at 1.97.
Most notable in that clash was the problem they had in defending crosses into the box with keeper Mostafa Shobeir particularly shaky under the high ball.
This is an area Australia can profit from and 6ft 6in defender Harry Souttar could well get some joy on set-plays.
I highlighted his shot and goalscoring potential earlier in the tournament and while his shots prices have now tumbled, the Leicester defender is tempting here in the goal markets.
The centre-back has scored 11 goals in 41 international appearances and while the majority of those have come against some poor opposition in Asian World Cup qualifying, Egypt’s vulnerability in the air makes me keen on him in this contest.
I’m also going to take a poke in the same market with Jordan Bos, another player with a decent goalscoring record for his country.
The Feyenoord man has scored in three of his last eight internationals and went pretty close to improving that stat against Paraguay when he had three shots and got into some great forward positions.
He was moved across to right wing-back for that one and his performance suggests he should stay there.
Bos may well be the man flinging in some crosses to test Shobeir but also expect him to be cutting in to shooting positions or making an under-lapping run or two.
2+ shots at odds-against – something he’s managed in two of three games so far – or an anytime assist at 6.14 (Bos had 11 for Feyenoord this season) are other bets with serious potential.
Argentina v Cape Verde
Miami (ITV, 11pm)
Argentina made a host of changes for their ‘dead rubber’ against Jordan, including leaving out Golden Boot-chasing Lionel Messi.
The great man still came on as a substitute to score and he’s now netted in seven consecutive World Cup matches.
It feels almost inevitable he’ll extend that run here, although he’s obviously very short with a brace for the 39-year-old offered at less than 2/1.
Also, before dismissing Cape Verde’s chances against the holders, it should be remembered that they remain unbeaten at this tournament and conceded only twice in the group stage. They also proved they can handle top-class opponents by holding pre-tournament favourites Spain to a 0-0 draw.
That said, it needed a tremendous performance by their goalkeeper to keep Spain out that day and you would expect Argentina to get this job done.
However, rather than trying to stitch together the short prices in search of something backable, I think it might be worth taking a chunky price in the card markets.
Argentina are up at 5.5 for the most cards here and that has potential.
While Cape Verde did receive more cards in the group stage (four to Argentina’s two), they committed only 15 fouls in their three games. Argentina’s figure was 33. The islanders were also fouled more (35-31).
Against Spain, when they largely sat back, they made just one foul. Something similar here would make this price look big indeed and it’s not hard to envisage Argentina dragging someone down if Cape Verde do get the chance for a quick break.
Colombia v Ghana
Kansas City (ITV, 2.30am Sat)
Colombia have looked good thus far, topping a group containing Portugal.
They may now have to deal with Ghana’s low block, something England were unable to overcome, and perhaps this is where James Rodriguez’s skills come to the fore.
I’ve backed him in the anytime assist market already in this tournament having highlighted his record which is now 17 assists in his last 32 international starts.
However, in what could well be a low-scoring encounter, 2.7 is not a price which interests me.
I did have a couple of possibilities in the player-card market but prices have been trimmed, so instead I’m heading to the corner markets with over 5.5 Colombia corners of interest.
They like to spread the play, using their wing-backs. They especially like to attack wide on the left where Luis Diaz raids and those are the tactics which tend to raise corner numbers – crosses being blocked/put behind.
I suspect Ghana will be wary of Colombia’s attacking threat and will sit pretty deep, as they did against England. They conceded nine corners in that match and also did so in recent friendlies with Mexico and Germany. That’s three of their last six in which their opponents have landed the over 8.5 corners bet.
While Colombia have only taken 6+ corners in three of their last nine, they’ve had 5+ in six of those matches and, given their opponents here, I feel they are capable of hitting the slightly higher mark.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Friday July 3rd
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