Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s last-32 matches at the World Cup 2026, including Spain v Austria.
Thursday’s last 32 matches preview
Spain v Austria
Los Angeles (BBC, 8pm)
Aside from their demolition of Saudi Arabia, Spain haven’t looked particularly convincing so far and certainly well below the levels being set by their potential semi-final opponents, France.
Nico Williams again looks set to miss out here, while on the other flank Lamine Yamal has been short of his best, hardly surprising given he came into the tournament nursing an injury.
The positive news is that La Roja have yet to concede, that following on from a qualifying campaign which saw them let in only two goals in six games.
Controlling possession usually gives them both protection and control of matches and I’d expect this one to follow such a pattern.
I did feel Austria’s press might cause Argentina problems in the group stage but, in truth, that didn’t happen. They had only six shots and an expected goals (xG) figure of just 0.53 (to Argentina’s 2.36).
With Spain just 1.26 for the victory in 90 minutes, I think a good way to approach this is to back them to win with under 3.5 goals in the game.
That gives us a price of 1.8 and also a bit of a safety net if Austria do manage to score.
For those still happy to try card bets, Stefan Posch’s record is worth mentioning.
The right-back has been carded in 13 of his last 33 international starts, including against the Argentines. He’s 3.15 for another here.
However, card counts have been pretty low at the tournament so far and Swedish referee Glenn Nyberg is renowned for his leniency – he’s an ‘unders’ man in the Champions League and has produced two three-card games so far at this World Cup.
Portugal v Croatia
Toronto (BBC, 12am Fri)
Portugal have only beaten Uzbekistan so far and I’d be wary of backing them at 1.66 to win this.
Croatia struggled to keep England at bay in their opener but they’ve since seen off both Panama and Ghana to reach this stage.
Going back to their run to the 2018 World Cup final, Zlatko Dalic’s side has a fine record in knockout football, avoiding defeat against England, Brazil, France and Netherlands.
With Portugal having failed to sparkle thus far, it’s worth considering backing the Croats to do so again here – they are at 1.85 in the double-chance market.
However, I’m worried this could be the time when the pre-tournament concerns about their aging side could come to the fore.
Temperatures are forecast to be around 30C at kick-off in Toronto, so this promises to be a tough test of legs for the Croatians.
Another possible angle is to go low on cards.
Norway’s Espen Eskas is one of the lower carders in UEFA competitions, while recent matches between these two sides have also produced low card counts.
In the past decade, the duo have met five times competitively with four of those matches seeing under 2.5 cards.
That’s a 2.2 chance here.
Switzerland v Algeria
Vancouver (BBC, 4am Fri)
I like Switzerland in this one.
They were the best side in their group, winning seven points and it really should have been nine – they dominated Qatar only to concede an injury-time equaliser.
Now they go up against an Algerian side who conceded seven group-stage goals, including three to both Austria and Argentina. No side in the last 32 conceded more.
With this in mind, I think it’s worth delving into the goalscorer markets here and backing Johan Manzambi, who has forced his way into the starting XI and is shining.
Two goals as a substitute helped see off Bosnia 4-1, while he was also on target as Canada were defeated 2-1 last time out.
That means the Freiburg man now has six goals in 15 international appearances and is averaging a goal every 105 minutes for his country.
Throw in Algeria’s shaky defence and a price of 3.6 in the anytime scorer market appeals.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Thursday July 2
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Thursday July 2
Spain to win and under 3.5 goals @ 1.8 with kwiff
Manzambi anytime scorer @ 3.6 with kwiff
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