Andy Schooler previews Sunday’s action at the World Cup, which includes Mexico v England at The Azteca Stadium.
Mexico v England: Can The Three Lions Roar into QFs?
From the day in December when the draw was made, this always looked a problematic tie for England. Winning their group would put them on course to play more than 2,000m above sea level in Mexico City and now they have the double-whammy of facing the co-hosts, who have safely negotiated their way to the last 16 without conceding a goal.
World Cup 2026: Mexico v England (BBC, 1am)
Their players will be well in tune with conditions but how England’s react to the lower oxygen levels remains to be seen. That certainly makes this a tricky one from a punting perspective. It would be no surprise to see England play in a way in which possession of the ball is treasured and fewer line-breaking runs are made.
Containment seems likely to be a priority for both sides – especially given how susceptible England have looked at the back – and I’m not sure it’s going to be a great watch for those staying up beyond 1am in the UK. Under 2.5 goals is, however, just a 1.5 shot – that’s landed in five of the eight games these two have played at the tournament so far. Another issue the altitude presents is the ability of the ball to fly through the air that bit faster, which could cause trouble for Jordan Pickford.
Mexico may well look to test him from distance and Julian Quinones has been a player who has been more than happy to shoot from range at this tournament. He’s at 2.15 for 3+ shots which is tempting – it’s landed in four of his last six international starts. However, the bet I’m going to take here is a corners one.
Set-pieces are a strength of England and they have a strong track record of forcing corner kicks. Only Canada had put in more crosses at the tournament heading into the last 16 which helps explain why they win so many. They’ve actually had at least five corners in their last 17 internationals, yet over 4.5 here is on offer at even money.
I understand that the potential for a relatively slow-paced game is, to some extent, behind that price but the fact is England are still favourites to win this match (2.2 in 90 minutes) and they will still be looking to make the best use they can of their wide men. Another reason for such odds is Mexico don’t tend to concede many corners, although Ecuador won eight against them in the last round and before that Czechia had five in the group stage. Such a strong data trend is hard to ignore and in what looks a tricky contest, this looks the way to go.
World Cup 2026: Brazil v Norway (ITV, 9pm)
There is the potential for thunderstorms in New York on Sunday, although they will also be bringing relief on the temperature front with the recent heatwave of 35C-plus due to ease before kick-off. That’s good news for those wanting to see a fairly open game – and that’s what I’m expecting here. Neither side has looked particularly tight at the back but both offer plenty of threat in attacking areas.
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score has landed in all four of Norway’s games so far, plus Brazil’s knockout stage clash with Japan. Given the qualities of both teams, I think that’s highly likely. As for the details, Bruno Guimaraes produced an eyecatching display against the Japanese and managed four shots, as well as another assist, taking his total for the tournament to four. He’s 3.12 for another here but 2.05 about 2+ shots makes greater appeal.
Of the teams to reach the last 16, only Paraguay have allowed opponents more shots and Guimaraes will have the confidence to take advantage. Finally, the two players who have been outstanding for these teams so far have been Vinicius Junior and Erling Haaland. Vini has four goals, Haaland five, the latter having now scored in a remarkable 13 successive internationals. The double about both scoring in this game isn’t a huge price but 5.2 is still worth considering given the form of both men.
World Cup 2026: Mexico v England Best Bets
England over 4.5 corners @ 2.0 with kwiff
Over 2.5 goals & BTTS in BRA v NOR @ 1.85 with kwiff
Vini Jr & Haaland both to score @ 5.2 with kwiff
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