The last 16 gets under way at the World Cup on Saturday – Andy Schooler previews Canada v Morocco and Paraguay v France…
Canada v Morocco
Houston (ITV, 6pm)
Canada have made the most of home advantage and a soft draw to reach the last 16 but I suspect their time is now up.
They only managed to beat Qatar in the group stage with defeat coming when they faced the best side in the pool, Switzerland.
South Africa were one of the easiest draws to get in the last 32 but their next African test should be a lot tougher.
Morocco impressed from the outset, giving Brazil a proper game, and they’ve since beaten Scotland, Haiti and, in the last round, Netherlands.
In new Bayern Munich signing, Ismael Saibari, they have a genuine goal threat, while Achraf Hakimi’s all-action performances from a nominal position of right-back, have made him a constant danger.
In short, they are the better team here and should win. They are 1.66 to do so in 90 minutes but I’ll push that up to odds-against by adding in the under 3.5 goals leg.
Three of their four games thus far have actually seen under 2.5 goals and I don’t envisage them completely running away with things.
In the sub-markets, Hakimi is worth considering in the shot markets again – he’s hit 3+ in three of his four appearances so far at this tournament (and had two in the other).
The PSG man’s ability to drive forward into the box – and in central areas – give him chances to get shots away and so 2.1 about 3+ here has potential.
On the opposite side of the ball, while I’m not convinced that Canada are going to offer a great amount going forward, I am interested in Stephen Eustaquio in the assists market.
The reason is his set-piece delivery was outstanding in Canada’s win over South Africa last time out. Derek Cornelius really should have scored with a free header from one ball in, while Eustaquio was also denied an assist when another
Canadian effort was cleared off the line.
With Morocco likely to see more of the ball, I have little doubt Canada will view set-pieces as a potential route to victory here and so Eustaquio’s assist price of 6.12 is worth a small play.
Paraguay v France
Philadelphia (BBC, 10pm)
France looked every inch world champions in waiting as they demolished Sweden in the last round but before piling into them to repeat the trick in this match, be aware to two things.
First, Paraguay have just seen off Germany with a dogged, defensive display which limited their opponents to just three shots on target in normal time.
Second, the temperature at kick-off for this game is forecast to be around 35C – that’s brutal and will surely sap the strength of any side looking to play energetically.
You have to wonder whether Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise can be quite so devastating in such conditions and maybe we will see a more possession-based, controlled display from France.
I did consider backing Olise for 2+ shots on target, something he’s now managed in four of his last eight internationals.
He’s 2.4 to do so here and Paraguay have conceded more shots than any other side in the competition (at time of writing) – close to 19 per game.
However, the South Americans’ sit-deep approach tends to result in plenty of blocked efforts and, as the stats show, Germany found it hard to test the keeper on Monday.
Instead, I think it might again pay to take a similar approach to the match above and back the favourites to win with under 3.5 goals in the match.
If France do get ahead, saving energy will likely become a priority in the heat – there will be no need to put on another show.
Paraguay’s defensive tactics will surely remain given the success they have had since proving to be too open in their opening game against USA.
They are capable of keeping the score down here but France’s extra quality should ensure they succeed where Germany failed.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Saturday July 4
Morocco to win & under 3.5 goals @ 2.05 with kwiff
Eustaquio 1+ assist @ 6.12 with kwiff
France to win & under 3.5 goals @ 1.7 with kwiff
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