The Epsom Derby 2024: A Runner-by-Runner Guide for kwiff
It’s the first Saturday in June and with it comes The Epsom Derby 2024. The biggest race in the British Flat calendar takes place over a mile-and-a-half around the famous Tattenham Corner. Here we look at every runner in the 16-strong field and attempt to pinpoint the winner of The Derby, which is live on ITV at 4.30pm.
A huge Derby longshot before turning up at Lingfield three weeks ago and running away with the trial there by four-and-a-half-lengths in a swift time. That race has been a good recent guide and the visual impression was striking, but doubts remain about his ability to repeat the performance in this different race and he doesn’t have the pedigree of a typical Derby winner.
The softer the going the better for last year’s heavy ground Futurity Stakes winner and it looks like he will have his conditions. However, he was disappointing when beaten six-lengths in the Dante on his seasonal reappearance at York and lacked a change of gear. He needs to bounce back for the Charlie Appleby yard that won this race in 2018 and 2021.
The only course winner in the field and he looked good when recording that victory in the Blue Riband Trial in April. The form has some substance as the third, Chief Little Rock, has since won a Group 3 at the Curragh and the step up two-furlongs in trip is certain to suit. If there is to be a surprise it might come from this progressive Andrew Balding-trained colt.
Last season’s outstanding juvenile was expected to sweep all before him this campaign, but the wheels fell off spectacularly when he was beaten 17-lengths in ninth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Ryan Moore keeps the faith and Aidan O’Brien brought Auguste Rodin back from a similar run in that race last year to win this, but it’s hard to see lightning striking twice.
Won the Ballysax at Leopardstown, but that three-length defeat of The Euphrates probably isn’t good enough and improvement is needed. We’ve had some big-priced winners in the last few years, including connections having a runner-up in this race 12 months ago at 66/1, but he would be a very surprising winner of The Epsom Derby 2024.
Returned from a winter break to finish second in the French 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp and was strong at the finish over a mile. The extra four-furlongs here may stretch him.
Fourth in the Futurity behind Ancient Wisdom last year and won at Windsor on his seasonal return, but will need the addition of first-time cheekpieces to bring plenty of improvement.
Made the running when behind Los Angeles in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown three weeks ago and probably likely to be a pacemaker for that stablemate, and City Of Troy, again.
Well held in trials for this at Chester and York on his last two starts, but likes testing ground and finished third in the Futurity on heavy last year, so the rain is in his favour.
Bred to stay well and looked good when winning a Kempton novice in December, but is unproven on turf and needs to find a huge amount of improvement to compete.
Unbeaten Camelot colt who won a Group 1 in France last season and returned to land the Derby Trial at Leopardstown on his seasonal reappearance. There should be improvement to come and he looks like Aidan O’Brien’s best chance of glory outside of City Of Troy.
Produced a career-best when second in the Classic Trial at Sandown and that is a race that trainer Ralph Beckett used as a prep for Westover before his third behind Desert Crown in this race two years ago. A lively outsider.
Still a maiden after three starts and has a mountain to climb on his debut for Dominic Ffrench Davis.
Recorded a good time when second behind Caviar Heights at Newmarket last month and represents the same connections that had Khalifa Sat (2020) and Hoo Ya Mal (2022) finish second at big prices. Could go well.
Winner of one of two starts on the all-weather, but takes a huge step up in class on his turf debut.
Well-regarded Golden Horn colt who won his sole start in a Newbury novice in April. Takes a huge step up in class, but trainer Richard Hannon had Mojo Star finish second in 2021 after he had been beaten in a Newbury maiden, so a big run is possible.
The Epsom Derby 2024: Summary
In an open year it looks worth taking on the market leaders and BELLUM JUSTUM might offer the best value at around the 20/1 mark for The Epsom Derby 2024. He has looked an improved performer on his last two starts and represents Andrew Balding, who is overdue a Derby win, having saddled four runners to finish in the frame in the last five seasons. Sayedaty Sadaty also represents Balding and could run into a place, while Macduff shouldn’t be overlooked for top trainer Ralph Beckett.
By Daniel Hill
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