Andy Schooler is back with his latest weekly tennis match-bets preview which this week focuses on the Monte Carlo Masters…
Monte Carlo Masters 2026: Round 1 Best Bets
After a slow, injury-hit start to the season, Fonseca found his form during the recent US hardcourt swing and played well before falling in Indian Wells and Miami to Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz respectively. He now hits his favoured clay and should be too good for a player who is just entering his worst part of the year. Diallo’s big first serve is not the same weapon on clay as it is on other surfaces and I think he’ll struggle here.
Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca v Gabriel Diallo
He certainly did in Bucharest last week where he lost 6-2 6-2 to qualifier Alex Molcan. That result took Diallo’s win-loss record for 2026 to 5-9 and he’s also struggled on this surface at tour level over time. Take out results in Madrid, where the altitude aids the big servers, and Diallo is just 2-5 at this level on this surface. There will be no such advantage for the Canadian down on the Mediterranean coast this week and I can see Fonseca’s propensity for the conditions proving decisive. Back him to win in straight sets at 1.8.
Monte Carlo Masters: Marin Cilic v Alexander Shevchenko
Shevchenko has already bedded in at the Monte Carlo Country Club, beating Roberto Bautista Agut in the final round of qualifying on Sunday. He also played in Bucharest last week so should be match sharp on the clay.I’m not sure we can say the same about Cilic, who will be playing his first match on the surface since September, when he lost two Davis Cup rubbers in straight sets. Most worrying was how regularly he had his serve – usually a big weapon – broken.
In fact, Cilic has now lost his last seven tour-level matches on clay and you have to go back to 2022 – the year he reached the French Open semi-finals – for his last such victory. Shevchenko beat top-10 star Ben Shelton in Miami recently, while a look back at his 2205 claycourt results shows wins over the likes of Flavio Cobolli, Dusan Lajovic and Marton Fucsovics (twice). Frankly, I’m surprised Shevchenko is odds-against here and he looks worth a bet.
Monte Carlo Masters: R1 Best Bets
Fonseca to beat Diallo 2-0 @ 1.8 with kwiff
Shevchenko to beat Cilic @ 2.15 with kwiff
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