Dave Massey casts his eye on the best Newmarket action for July 11th.
2:39 York – 1m Handicap
With some pace on here via Mr Swivell and First Principle, I am unsurprisingly giving Apiarist another chance to show his skills off. He needs them to go a solid gallop as he travels so well and has a good finishing kick on his day; bad luck has dogged his last two efforts, no run at all at Thirsk but flying home for fourth once he saw daylight and a similar story in the Buckingham Palace last time, almost brought down as he ran into the back of the weakening Defence Minister and that quite probably costing him a top-six placing. It’s all there again for him today, the set-up looks right; just needs a dollop of luck and he will have every chance. I’m astounded he’s four points bigger than Cosi Bello here, as for all he was two and a half lengths in front of Apiarist at Ascot, Apiarist would have beaten him with a clear run. His York form reads 41430; that makes him look solid each-way material.
3:45 York – John Smith’s Cup
I’ll take Quai De Bethune and at a massive price, Per Contra, as my picks.
Quai De Bethune looks a big price for one that has some quality handicap form to his name last year; third in the London Gold Cup at Newbury and he followed that up by winning the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot. He came back after the best part of a year away to run sixth at Epsom, not disgraced, and on ground he probably found too soft. I can only assume he’s a 25 chance as he now has Hamad Al Jehani by his name and not Andrew Balding, as he did last year, but it isn’t as if his new handler is clueless, 9-43 this year for a 21% strike rate. The hood goes on, which slightly puzzles me as he’s not looked like he’s needed one, but I reiterate, al Jehani seems to know what he’s doing, so I hope he’s right. 16s and bigger is worth taking.
Timeform describe the pace here as “extreme” and that’s hard to disagree with, and so, in much the same way as Erzindjan – a pretty exposed handicapper that had the right set-up – hit the frame at a massive price for us last year, so Per Contra might do here. A fully exposed 5yo, he has the right drop-out runstyle for this and looked on the way back to form when fourth in a 0-105 here at the start of June, doing all his best work late. Forget Newcastle last time; held up out the back again, they absolutely crawled for a mile and turned it into a sprint, which he doesn’t want. His full form figures here read 0320004, so we know he can go well, and whilst I don’t think he can win, he most certainly can be in the first five, and at 50-1 I’d be happy to row in with him. Probably get bigger again on the day, given his profile (in fact, some 66s already with Ladbrokes and Coral).
3:25 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup 7f
Great Aclaim deserves a big handicap after three near-misses in valuable handicaps and given he has some Newmarket July course form to his name, this looks his chance.
He found The Wizard Of Eye a length too good in the Victoria Cup at Ascot in May and then tried his hand in the ultra-competitive Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot, reversing earlier form with The Wizard Of Eye but just found a couple to good, beaten half a length but sticking on really well late. This looks a good test for him, with Physique likely to set a good gallop, and off the same mark today, should go close.
4:35 Newmarket – July Cup 6f
A good renewal of the July Cup and the 3yo division are well represented, not least with the improving Venetian Sun, winner of the Commonwealth Cup last time out and a revelation since dropped back to sprinting trips. She gets all the allowances here, but this is by far her toughest task.
Big Mojo was beaten a neck by No Half Measures in this last year and everything he’s done this season suggests this has been the target again this year. He needed his first start of the season at York when well held by Elmonjed in the Minster Stakes, but looked very much on the way back when beaten a shade over two lengths by Mission Central in the King Charles III. He finished off really well, as you’d expect, and this step back up to six furlongs is a huge positive to his chances. William Buick, on board when he won the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock last week, is back on board, and with Mick Appleby amongst the winners recently, there are plenty of positives regarding his chance here.
By Dave Massey
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