Andy Schooler previews Friday’s World Cup quarter-final between Spain v Belgium.
Spain v Belgium, Los Angeles (BBC, 8pm)
Five matches in and Spain are yet to concede a goal at the World Cup.
Their average expected goals against (xGA) figure of 0.64 is the joint-lowest in the tournament (alongside Canada, if you’re asking).
They’ve had more of the ball in every match, dominating possession in most – in every game bar their last (against Portugal), they’ve had least 64% of the ball.
Now they must face a Belgium side who are tough to get a handle on.
I remember writing earlier in the tournament about how they were struggling to break teams down, a familiar story seen at several other tournaments over the past few years.
However, since I wrote that, they’ve banged in 12 goals in three games.
Quite how relevant putting five past New Zealand is now is open to question, while Senegal’s players will still be having sleepless nights over how they let in two late goals – plus another in extra time – against a Belgian side who really struggled in their last-32 tie.
But it’s fair to say Belgium were impressive in taking down USA in the last round, running out deserved 4-1 winners.
Kevin de Bruyne was dropped for that game and Jeremy Doku was again on the bench – could it be they are actually a better team without those two stars?
Boss Rudi Garcia will be forced to change his XI for this game though. Amadou Onana is out injured so De Bruyne could return. If not, Hans Vanaken looks set to come in.
Belgium have actually managed an expected-goals (xG) figure of 2.28 per game – the best of the quarter-finalists – so they do have the potential to carry a threat to Spain.
However, this is a considerable step up in quality and I would not be surprised to see Spain’s defensive strength come to the fore.
Rodri and Pedri provide plenty of protection to that watertight defence, allowing the forwards to do their thing.
Nico Williams is again set to miss out but Alex Baena has filled in well and both he and Lamine Yamal have been providing plenty of crosses for striker Mikel Oryazabal, who has four goals to his name.
Belgium have conceded in all bar one of their games thus far, the odd-one-out being against Iran when they went down to 10 men and had to make defending a priority in the second half.
I’d expect Spain to find a way through and that strong defensive record means a win to nil look the way to go.
In the sub-markets, if you do fancy the Belgians in some way, I think you could do worse than back Leandro Trossard for an assist.
He’s landed this bet in his last three games and has been one of the best players at the World Cup for successful passes into the penalty area – only Michael Olise has more.
Given my position on Spain, I can’t get involved in that but another bet related to the Belgium attack that has potential is Brandon Mechele to have a shot.
The centre-back is a set-piece threat and has achieved this in four of five games at this tournament. The obvious issue is, how many chances will Belgium get to deliver dead balls into the box?
Instead, I’m going to pick a cards bet for something a bit bigger.
Lamine Yamal isn’t Spain’s most-fouled player but he is their most dangerous and that threat has drawn cards from opponents.
Twice in the last three matches opposition players have been booked for fouls on the teenager.
Step forward Maxime de Cuyper, who should be Yamal’s direct opponent on Friday.
I mentioned in my preview of Belgium v USA how he’s got into some threating positions going forward and if he continues to try to provide that sort of attacking threat, there’s every chance he’s getting caught the wrong side of the pacy Yamal.
The Brighton man was booked against Egypt earlier in the tournament and can pick up another here.
The referee is encouraging – Michael Oliver produced eight cards in his last match at the tournament and is one of the better officials for cards when it comes to UEFA club football, involving different style of play from what he is used to in the Premier League.
That applies here too and over 35.5 booking points was also considered at 2.1.
However, Spain’s games don’t tend to produce high card counts – teams often sit off them rather than engage – but the De Cuyper v Yamal match-up looks like it could deliver on this front.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Friday July 10
Spain to win to nil @ 2.5 with kwiff
De Cuyper to be carded @ 3.75 with kwiff@ 3.3 with kwiff
De Cuyper to be carded @ 3.75 with kwiff@ 3.3 with kwiff
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