Andy Schooler previews England’s World Cup semi-final with Argentina, which takes place in Atlanta on Wednesday.
England v Argentina, Atlanta (BBC, 8pm)
For the fourth time in five major tournaments, England are into the semi-finals.
After reaching only two between 1968 and 2018, these are, indeed, heady days.
But what happens now?
They face the holders, determined to keep a grip on the trophy, and a nation with which there is much history – on and off the football field.
On it, the Argentines were beaten during the famous winning run of 1966, hit back with Diego Maradona’s stunning goal – plus another well-known one – in 1986 and also toppled England in 1998. However, England won their last competitive meeting at the 2022 World Cup.
Every match has had a moment of controversy, be it the red cards for Antonio Rattin and David Beckham, the alleged dive of Michael Owen or, most famously, Maradona’s ‘hand of God’ goal in Mexico City.
One wonders how tempers will fray indoors in Atlanta on Wednesday, especially after many issues unfolded during England’s victory over Norway at the weekend.
Jude Bellingham ensured England found a way through that one and he and Harry Kane have played huge roles in getting the Three Lions to this stage.
Bellingham’s likely battle with Leandro Paredes looks a key one, the sort which could easily draw cards; at least in normal circumstances.
I’ve already bemoaned the lack of cards being shown on more than one occasion so I won’t labour the point, but it’s fair to say the player-card market lacks value given the approach of the officials. For the record, Moroccan-born American referee Ismail Elfath takes charge here. He’s shown eight yellows and one red in three games so far.
Marc Guehi against Lionel Messi, who comes up against England for the first time, also looks a big battleground. Elliot Anderson will likely be dropping deep to help deal with the threat of the 39-year-old, who leads the Golden Boot race with Kylian Mbappe (at time of writing).
England could make other changes – Bukayo Saka for Noni Madueke, Reece James potentially coming in at right-back – but how they deal with Messi will be crucial and that is my big concern here.
Anyone who has watched England must have been worried about them defensively from their very first game of the tournament when Croatia scored twice in the first half.
Ghana and Panama both had glorious chances in the other group matches, while DR Congo led for long periods in the last 32, Mexico netted twice before England clung on in the Azteca and Norway will still be ruing squandering a magnificent chance in a 2-on-1 attack which had the potential to put them 2-0 up.
That game also saw John Stones come close to gifting the ball to Erling Haaland – the man they had insisted had to be stopped at all costs – while even the usually-reliable Jordan Pickford made a costly error.
Essentially, I’ve been worried for weeks about what happens when England come up against a top-class side and Messi is the man who makes Argentina tick.
I can’t help but think he’d have picked out his man when Alexander Sorloth didn’t in that 2-on-1 situation, while he’s also a player who can score a goal out of nothing.
For a betting perspective, this leads me to think there could be value in backing Argentina to win this with something to spare.
They are 4/1 shots to cover a 1.5 handicap and, with my punting head on, this looks a decent call.
Of course, it could go wrong at the other end of the pitch, for stopping Bellingham and Kane will be a tough task and critics will point out this is a team which has conceded in four straight games – against Jordan, Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland.
However, it should also be remembered that Argentina had been rock solid prior to that, conceding just one goal in their previous nine matches. In qualifying, they let in just 10 in 18 games.
While not completely convinced by Argentina here, they are the best team England have faced so far and could be the ones who finally punish a side who have ridden their luck to reach this stage to some extent.
If they keep giving away opportunities, they will eventually be punished, of that I am sure. Perhaps it will be France who do so in the final – they look better equipped to do that – but I’m happy to take a chance on Argentina given the price involved.
In the sub-markets, I know some people will want a way of siding with England players, but I’m struggling to find value around them.
Instead, I’m again drawn to Alexis Mac Allister in the shots betting.
The Liverpool man was a winner in our quarter-final preview on Saturday, landing the 2+ shots bet inside nine minutes and finishing with four efforts at goal in total.
He’s now landed the over 1.5 shots bet in four of his five starts at the World Cup and, as long as Paredes is in the side, Mac Allister should have plenty of licence to join the attacks and get into the box.
He’s also found inside the penalty area for set-plays – scoring from one against Switzerland in the last round.
That may well give him confidence to go for goal again here and I believe 2.35 about 2+ shots again is too big.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Wednesday July 15
Argentina (-1.5) on the handicap @ 5.0 with kwiff
Mac Allister over 1.5 shots @ 2.35 with kwiff
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