Andy Schooler previews the World Cup’s ‘bronze final’ as England take on France for third place on Saturday.
France v England, Miami (BBC, 10pm)
The game that no-one wants to play in is upon us once more.
FIFA may have rebadged it the ‘bronze final’ but to most fans it remains the third-place play-off. To the players, one suspects it’s simply known as the holiday disruptor. Add expletive as necessary.It’s hard to believe too many will be champing at the bit for this one, although someone who may well welcome an extra game is Kylian Mbappe.
He’s chasing back-to-back Golden Boots and will need at least one goal involvement– be it a goal or an assist – in this contest if he’s to stand any chance of overhauling Lionel Messi.
Both men have eight goals with one game each left to play but Messi currently leads the tie-breaking assists count by four to three.
Mbappe will surely be looking to add his goal tally against an England defence which I’ve been happy to oppose during the tournament – it’s never looked watertight and it was no great surprise to see Argentina break it down, in the end, on Wednesday.
If France are able to return to their free-flowing ways – and against an England side likely to be much-changed, that’s more than possible – then Mbappe could well be in business. However, odds-on quotes about him in the anytime scorer market look short enough.
The last time England were in this third-place match was eight years ago and they made five changes to their semi-final side.Something similar here would not surprise with Declan Rice looking very jaded and Reece James once again the walking wounded. Players aiming to get a look-in include Kobbie Mainoo, who has only warmed the bench thus far.
France will also likely tinker with their side – Rayan Cherki looks an obvious contender to play and he’s at 3.11 for an assist. Further back, William Saliba is injured so Maxence Lacroix is likely to make the XI. Theo Hernandez is another who
has made several substitute appearances and could now be in line for a start.
If he does start – and this does look a match for which you should be waiting for the team news – then I’d be happy to back Hernandez for over 0.5 shots.
He’s landed this in six of his last seven starts and will be raiding down the left, attacking the latest Englishman to fill the right-back slot. Maybe Jarrell Quansah will return following the end of his suspension, although it could be Djed Spence.
Either way, I can see Hernandez getting into shooting positions and his shots history suggests 1.68 – sadly trimmed since I started writing this piece – is a decent bet.
Overall, I do think France are in a better position than England to win this.
While both coaches left a lot to be desired with how failed to cope with difficult opponents in the semi-finals, the French players have known for some time that Didier Deschamps is leaving.
In contrast, the England squad – several of whom are reportedly angry with Thomas Tuchel’s tactics against Argentina – may have some awkward issues to deal with given it looks as though the German will be staying on to lead them into a home European Championship in 2028.
I wrote the other day about how I could see England’s defence crumbling to a top-class side and while Argentina didn’t manage to cover the -1.5 handicap, that’s a bet I can back again here.
If France are taking this seriously – and I suspect they will be out to help Mbappe find his goal, as well as give Deschamps a fitting send-off – then it’s not hard to envisage their livewire attack proving too good for that shaky backline.
France (-1.5) is on offer at 2.85.
Admittedly, as already suggested, team news will be key and trying to second-guess who will play in a match like this is a tough task.
For that reason, it might pay to simply focus on long-term trends in the third-place match.
The key takeaway is this is a game which tends to produce goals – 11 of the last 12 have seen over 2.5 goals and six of them over 3.5. Both teams to score has landedin nine.
By combining over 3.5 and BTTS you can get an odds-against price which is tempting.
While it has ‘only’ landed in five of the last 11 third-place games, the attacking strength of both teams in this year’s edition suggests it’s more than possible it will occur again. And, let’s face it, after Wednesday it’s hard to see England not setting out to be much more positive. Tuchel’s job prospects could depend on it.
As for cards, you might expect the count to be low given little Is really at stake but five of the last six have seen over 25.5 booking points (that’s 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red).
You can get 2.15 about over 25.5 in this renewal but you are probably aware that this has not been a good tournament for card bettors, with the referees letting an awful lot go.
Jesus Valenzuela is the man with the whistle here and he sums up that low-cards approach.
Three games so far have produced card make-ups of 1-2-1 so this isn’t a bet that appeals.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Saturday July 18
Theo Hernandez over 0.5 shots @ 1.68 with kwiff
France (-1.5) to win @ 2.85 with kwiff
Over 3.5 goals & BTTS @ 2.03 with kwiff
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