The UEFA Nations League produced some thrilling quarter-finals in March – now it’s semi-finals time and Andy Schooler has previewed both games.
UEFA Nations League Best Bets, June 2nd
Germany appear to have plenty of momentum coming into this week’s Nations League finals, which they will host. It’s just one defeat in 17 for a side transformed since Julian Nagelsmann replaced Hansi Flick, that coming in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 when eventual champions Spain won 2-1 after extra time. They were quick to return to winning ways and they’ve gone unbeaten throughout this competition, top-scoring with 23 goals across their eight games.
UEFA Nations League: Germany v Portugal
Like most of the sides involved in these finals, they’ve lost a number of players to injury following another lengthy season – think Jamal Musiala, Kai Havertz and Antonio Rudiger – but there is plenty of depth in this German squad. Florian Wirtz will be out to make an impression following all the noise surrounding his potential departure from Leverkusen. Up front, Deniz Undav will be confident of making an impact following four goals in his last eight games of the season for Stuttgart. That’s if he gets the nod ahead of Niclas Fullkrug, who finally began to make an impact at West Ham in the closing weeks of the season.
Both strikers look potential beneficiaries of Joshua Kimmich’s crossing ability. The Bayern Munich man – who will be making his 100th appearance for Die Mannschaft – plays at right-back for his country and has now produced seven assists in his last 12 international starts. Sadly, we’re not getting an assist market at time of writing. Portugal, who have lost their last five meetings with the Germans, have the issue of Champions League finalists to deal with.
UEFA Nations League: Prone Portugal
Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves and Vitinha would all be expected to start in normal circumstances but the fact is all three played in PSG’s Saturday success and were celebrating in Paris as recently as Sunday night. How Roberto Martinez deals with those players could be crucial. Many have criticised his handling of Cristiano Ronaldo, who continues to hold a place in the starting XI. Maybe that’s justified; after all, he’s this competition’s leading scorer with six.
But his record at the very highest level has left a lot to be desired in recent years – he failed to score at Euro 2024 and netted just once at the 2022 World Cup. He also drew two blanks against Spain in the previous edition of this competition. The Portuguese looked pretty toothless at times at the Euros and up against the class of the hosts here, I’m not sure they will be good enough. A Germany win looks the bet, with Undav having potential in the anytime scorer market at 2.9 – if he starts.
UEFA Nations League: Spain v France
Again, the Champions League final casts something of a shadow over this semi-final, albeit there will be 24 hours extra recovery time for those expected to play in both games. France are hit hard on this front – they have seven players in their squad who were involved in PSG v Inter Milan on Saturday night, including Ousmane Demeble and Desire Doue. Spain must decide whether to play Fabian Ruiz after he picked up a winners’ medal with the French champions.
Even France boss Didier Deschamps admitted that Spain “may have a few players who are fresher”, also describing them as “the best side in Europe and probably the best in the world”. France will surely have a mix-and-match side here; it’s easy to see a match where all five substitutes are in early use with Champions League finalists replaced after an hour or brought on from the bench. And regardless of who is deemed fit enough to start here, we already know their defence will be makeshift with regulars Jules Kounde, Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba all injured.
While squad strength is a massive plus for the French, whether that’s enough to get them through against the European champions is open to question and I’d expect a repeat of their Euro 2024 semi-final, which Spain won 2-1. Luis del la Fuente’s men are unbeaten in 18, while their last competitive defeat came more than two years ago. The answer to the quiz question is Scotland in March 2023. They also have a few injury problems – long-term victims Rodri and Dani Carvajal remain absent, while Ferran Torres and Ayoze Perez have also missed out.
UEFA Nations League: Super Spain
But they do have arguably the world’s best player right now in Lamine Yamal. The teenager was in devastating form towards the end of the campaign for Barcelona and, notably, had his shooting boots on. Yamal netted in three of Barca’s six Champions League knockout games, plus three of their last four La Liga matches. He’s 3.3 to net here and against that much-changed defence, I think that’s worth an interest.
Spain games have been goal-laden of late and these two teams should be happy to go toe-to-toe in attacking terms. I’m a little surprised that over 2.5 goals is on offer at odds-against. Six of Spain’s eight games in this tournament have landed this bet, plus four of France’s. Finally, also consider Robin Le Normand for a card, if a market goes up.
The Spain centre-back has been the punters’ friend in this market for some time and he’s now been carded in eight of his last 14 international starts. In club football, he’s collected 28 cards across the last two seasons and referee Michael Oliver isn’t one to mess around in his UEFA appointments – his card numbers tend to rise on the continent.
UEFA Nations League Best Bets
Germany to beat Portugal @ 1.76 with kwiff
Spain to beat France @ 2.3 with kwiff
Over 2.5 goals in Spain v France @ 2.05 with kwiff
Lamine Yamal anytime scorer v France @ 3.3 with kwiff
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