The league stage of the Champions League reaches the halfway point this week. Andy Schooler picks out his top Champions League tips, including a 7.5 chance in Liverpool v Real Madrid.
Hot Champions League Tips: MD4 Preview
Matchday four’s marquee game takes place at Anfield where there will be a repeat of the 2022 final. Liverpool’s relative demise has been well documented – in statistical terms they’ve now lost six of their last eight in all competitions. They returned to winning ways on Saturday but their 2-0 victory over Aston Villa had a feel of a sticking plaster about it. Had Villa taken their early chances and not gifted the Reds the opening goal, it could well have turned out a lot different.
Champions League Tips: Liverpool v Real Madrid
In contrast, Real Madrid’s form is rock solid. They’ve won all bar one of their matches this season and recently took down arch rivals Barcelona in El Clasico. Key men, such as Jude Bellingham, have returned from injury and with Kylian Mbappe firing in the goals, I’m a little surprised to see them at a longer price than their hosts.
OK, they did lose there in last season’s competition but that was a Liverpool team purring, not spluttering. I’ve seen plenty of teams freeze in the headlights of the Anfield midweek atmosphere over the years – a prime example being Barcelona in that famous 2019 semi-final – but many of these Real players won 5-2 here two years ago so I’m not too worried about that factor. The other bet, at a much bigger price, that I like here is Federico Valverde to assist.
The Uruguayan has four assists in 12 starts for his club this season and while he’s recently been switched to right-back, it’s worth noting he assisted via his surging runs down that flank at the weekend. Indeed, his assists record from that position is strong – he’s produced five in 21 starts at right-back for Real. He’s 7.5 for an anytime assist in this one and with Liverpool’s defence far from watertight this season, with left-back Milos Kerkez one of the most criticised players, this looks worth a punt.
Champions League Tips: Slavia Prague v Arsenal
Top of the Premier League and a 100% record in the Champions League – things are going well for Arsenal. They’ve now won nine games on the spin in all competitions, the last seven of which have seen them keep the opposition out. The ‘win to nil’ bet is proving increasingly popular when looking at the Gunners but the layers are wising up and that option is now odds-on for this game against a Slavia side who have two draws and a defeat in this competition so far.
While it may well win again, there seems little value to be had there so it’s off to the sub-markets and a bet which failed to land for this column on Saturday but one I’m prepared to give another go. Riccardo Calafiori has had 2+ shots in six of his last nine starts, yet he’s odds-against for a repeat in a match Arsenal are expected to dominate possession-wise.
The left-back likes to get forward, while he’s also a big threat in the air from the set-pieces at which his team are so good. The worry here is that he won’t actually start – Miles Lewis-Skelley has played the last two UCL games. But those matches have also seen Calafiori fail to appear from the bench and if that were to be repeated, it would simply be money back. Let’s have a go.
Champions League Tips: Qarabag v Chelsea
I mentioned Qarabag in my matchday three preview and they were on course to land us a handicap winner only to concede at the death. However, their effort at Athletic Bilbao enhanced their reputation further after they opened their campaign with two surprise victories. I think they are capable of troubling Chelsea, who have made the lengthy trip to Azerbaijan having won six of their last seven matches.
However, they’ve still been rather up and down, conceding twice at home to Sunderland to lose that one and letting in three at rock-bottom Wolves, where the edged to a 4-3 win. They’ve actually conceded 2+ goals in four of their eight away games. With Qarabag having scored in all nine Champions League matches they’ve played (including six qualifiers), both teams to score is the bet I like here. This has landed in two of Chelsea’s three UCL game s thus far and, in all competitions, it’s now been the outcome in nine of their last 12.
Champions League Tips: 2025/26: Matchday 4
Calafiori 2+ shots v Slavia Prague @ 2.1 with kwiff
Real Madrid to beat Liverpool @ 2.35 with kwiff
Valverde 1+ assist v Liverpool @ 7.5 with kwiff
BTTS in Qarabag v Chelsea @ 1.75 with kwiff
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