Andy Schooler previews Thursday’s six matches at the FIFA World Cup, read his exclusive preview for kwiff below.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Andy Schooler’s Thursday Preview
Germany have already won this group so team changes look highly likely for a fixture their opponents need to win having collected just a single point so far. One change that will be forced upon Germany boss Julian Nagelsmann is at centre-back where Nico Schlotterbeck has been ruled out of the tournament due to injury. Antonio Rudiger looks set to fill in and you’d expect him to pay alongside Jonathan Tah as the par look to build a partnership that will have to see the side through the knockout stages.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Ecuador v Germany (BBC, 9pm)
Elsewhere, Deniz Undav seems likely to get a start after making a big impact in both games so far as a substitute. He has three goals and two assists from those appearances. Joshua Kimmich is another always good to follow in the assist market – after two against Curacao, he has 13 in his 26 appearances since Euro 2024. He’s great crosser of the ball, before from open play and dead balls, which is one of the reasons Nagelsmann reverted him to right-back upon his appointment.
However, anyone looking to play German-positive markets need to be aware of Ecuador’s defensive strength – they’ve conceded just one goal so far, adding to the five they let in during their 18 qualifiers. All the pre-tournament predictions about them being solid at the back and toothless up front have proved to be founded. They have to come forward here but they just don’t appear to have many goals in them. With Germany’s priority arguably to settle Rudiger and Tah in together, under 2.5 goals in this one appeals at 1.95.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Curacao v Ivory Coast (BBC, 9pm)
From what we’ve seen, Curacao seem unlikely to have the quality needed to claim the victory they require in this one. They were crushed 7-1 by Germany and while they bagged a creditable draw against toothless Ecuador last time out, they gave up an awful lot of shots with their keeper making no fewer than 15 saves. On another day, they would have been well beaten again.
Still, they have had a go, rather than simply trying to defend – they’ve had 18 shots across the two games thus far. They did cause Germany a few anxious moments and managed to score with one of them. Livano Comenencia was the man who found the net and he could be of interest here. He loves to get a shot off around the edge of the box and has already managed five such efforts in this tournament, including a free kick.
Given the need for a result, it would be no surprise to see him pushing forward and letting fly from that area again here when given the opportunity. Over 1.5 shots is a bet he’s landed in both games so far and at 2.35, that looks interesting against a team who only need a point to nail down second place in the group (they can’t finish top). For those seeking a bigger price, you might want to take him to score again – that’s a 13.0 chance despite Comenencia having now scored in three of his last 10 internationals.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Japan v Sweden (BBC, 12am)
Japan already have four points – probably good enough to reach the next round – but they still need another to be sure. As for Sweden, only a win is good enough for them, without having to rely on the results of others. That situation sets this game up nicely and while Japan are the right favourites, the gap between their 1.75 and Sweden’s 3.9 price looks large to me.
The Swedes dismantled Tunisia and were better than the 5-1 scoreline suggests against the Dutch. Viktor Gyokeres has looked a big threat up top. I mentioned Yasin Ayari and his shooting ability ahead of matchday two but didn’t put him up as a tip – he duly hit two shots, as suggested. It’s been a bad few days. Sadly, the layers have wised up to his threat now, although they have potentially left a window of opportunity open in the card markets.
Japan’s good discipline is another factor mentioned on these pages earlier in the tournament. For those who missed it, they picked up just eight cards in 15 qualifiers and they are yet to receive one here. In contrast, Sweden averaged two cards per game in qualifying and picked up three yellows during their Dutch defeat. I’m therefore surprised Sweden aren’t firmer favourites in the ‘most cards’ market. Odds-against is available and I’ll happily take that.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Tunisia v Netherlands (BBC, 12am)
With Netherlands having won 5-1 last time out and still needing a victory as they look to secure top spot in the group, it’s hard to see them making too many changes here. They’ve looked a strong attacking force so far and any kind of repeat looks likely to prove too much for the Tunisians, who have been the most shambolic of all this World Cup’s teams.
After a 5-1 opening defeat to Sweden they sacked their manager but, surprisingly enough, under-prepared replacement Herve Renard failed to turn things around in a matter of days and Japan thumped them 4-0. They’ve offered little going forward – only eight shots in those two games – and they will likely be on the back foot again here. Cody Gakpo, joint top scorer at Euro 2024, has been at it again, scoring in both games so far, but he’s now odds-on for a goal in this one, a price hard to get excited about.
Denzel Dumfries is arguably better value in the assist market. He played a big part in the win over Sweden, providing two assists and he now has seven in his last 12 internationals. Longer term, he’s assisted 17 times in 34 games for the Netherlands. He now has a proper target man in Bryan Brobbey to aim at too after the Sunderland striker came in for the Sweden match and netted twice. A price of 3.54 isn’t mouthwatering but worth considering given this could be pretty one-sided.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Turkey v USA (ITV, 3am)
This is essentially a dead rubber. USA have already won the group; Turkey are already eliminated. The co-hosts have been pretty good so far and are odds-on to make it three wins out of three. Turkey have lost two of two but have they really been that bad?
They’ve dominated possession in both matches – over 70% on each occasion – and managed a massive 62 shots. That’s easily the highest figure in the tournament after two games each – 13 more than the next best. The issue is, they haven’t had their shooting boots on with none of those chances converted. Still, with the pressure now off, maybe things will click into gear.
The Turks were considered the USA’s closest challengers in this group two weeks ago and given how they’ve created chances, they should not be written off. USA will likely make changes – regular starters Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson are all on yellow cards and another in this match would see them miss their last-32 clash next week. You wonder if they could all be left out. Maybe it will be worth waiting for the team news but in the here and now I think a small play on the underdogs here is worthwhile.
FIFA World Cup 2026: Paraguay v Australia (ITV, 3am)
Unlike in the other Group D game, there’s much at stake here. Australia start in the box seat – a draw sends them through to the knockout stages as runners-up; Paraguay need a win to claim that spot. However, they might be happy with the suits-all draw – they seem highly unlikely to miss out on progression if they put a fourth point on the board. Perhaps unsurprisingly, that’s the favourite result. 0-0 is at just 3.9.
It’s not hard to see a low-scoring draw – Paraguay have managed only 11 shots and Australia 14 in the tournament so far. Admittedly, the South Americans did play with 10 men for half of their game against Turkey when they defended deep and were lucky that their opponents couldn’t find the net despite near-constant pressure.
In the player props markets, Nestory Irankunda has strangely omitted from the starting XI last time out despite a lively display in the Aussies’ opener. He should come back in by his shot prices have shortened right up. The same has happened with giant defender Harry Souttar, who landed us a winner on matchday one. Value looks thin on the ground to me, so I’ll sit this one out.
World Cup 2026: Best Bets, Thursday June 25
Under 2.5 goals in ECU v GER @ 1.95 with kwiff
Comenencia over 1.5 shots @ 2.35 with kwiff
Sweden most cards @ 2.25 with kwiff
Dumfries 1+ assist @ 3.54 with kwiff
Turkey to win @ 3.3 with kwiff
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