Andy Schooler previews this weekend’s FA Cup semi-finals, starting with Man City v Southampton and Chelsea v Leeds. Read his exclusive preview in his latest kwiff column.
FA Cup Semi-Finals: Wembley Best Bets, April 25th 2026
Southampton have already beaten Arsenal so can they now dethrone the other Premier League title contenders? They might have a few backers at 9.5 when you consider their unbeaten run has now hit 20 games but given their opponents and their position in the Championship – they remain in the hunt for automatic promotion with two huge games to come next week – you do wonder if this is their top priority right now.
FA Cup Semi-Finals: Manchester City v Southampton
It seems sad to say, and maybe I’m wrong, but that’s the way of modern football – playing in the Premier League and enjoying its riches is the be all and end all for most clubs now. City also have a league campaign to worry about although, unlike Saints, they have no midweek match to follow and I suspect their class will tell here. As they tend to do, they’ve hit form at just the right time and have kept four clean sheets in their last five games, only Arsenal scoring what was a gift of a goal against them in that period.
Southampton had home advantage against a below-strength Arsenal; they will get neither boost here and will also be missing influential midfielder Flynn Downes due to suspension. The bet I like involves a player I’ve mentioned before on these pages and that’s City’s Abdukodir Khusanov. He’s been a regular of late at centre-back and has also played his part further up the pitch, being a threat from set pieces. In a game City are expected to dominate, certainly possession-wise, I’m surprised to see the Uzbek at odds-against to have a shot.
He’s done that in five of his last nine games. Interestingly, for a side sitting fourth in the Championship, Southampton have been poor at defending set plays. They are only 17th out of 24 in terms of denying opponents shots from such situations and so I’m happy to give Khusanov the nod at the price. It’s also worth noting that only two teams have conceded more set-piece goals than Southampton in the second tier this season so Khusanov at 9.5 in the anytime scorer market could be a touch of value.
FA Cup Semi-Finals: Chelsea v Leeds (Sun, 1500)
Calamity club Chelsea have lost six of their last seven, won one of their last eight and have just lost five league games in a row without scoring for the first time in 114 years. It’s fair to say that isn’t the best preparation for an FA Cup semi-final, while it’s also questionable that throwing the academy boss into the first-team manager’s job a few days before is a great idea.
Callum McFarlane is handed the reins here after Liam Rosenior’s midweek sacking, although it’s worth remembering Chelsea drew 1-1 with Manchester City when he was last in charge in January. Maybe there will be something of a bounce here but it will need to be a considerable one after Tuesday’s miserable effort at Brighton, where the Blues lost 3-0 and looked very disjointed. Leeds have no such worries.
Their late draw with Bournemouth on Wednesday took them to 40 Premier League points and Daniel Farke’s smile at the final whistle said it all. They aren’t safe yet but it’s hard to see them going down now. They should be able to fully focus on this game, one they go into having gone seven matches unbeaten – a stark contrast to their opponents’ form. Chelsea are priced up on reputation only here and Leeds have to be the value at 3.15, especially when you consider they’ve already beaten the Blues this season and also held them to a draw at Stamford Bridge.
I also like Noah Okafor in the anytime scorer market. The Swiss forward is bang in form, having scored five goals in his last eight appearances. Apply the starts-only filter and it’s four in six. He also hit the post against Bournemouth the other day and should carry plenty of threat to a Chelsea defence which has conceded 19 times in their last eight. Okafor scored in that 2-2 draw at the Bridge in February and could well repeat the trick.
FA Cup Semi-Finals: Wembley Best Bets
Abdukodir Khusanov 1+ shot @ 2.1 with kwiff
Leeds to beat Chelsea @ 3.15 with kwiff
Noah Okafor anytime scorer @ 2.95 with kwiff
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