Andy Schooler picks out his huge tennis tips for the first-round matches at this week’s ATP Tour events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro and Delray Beach.
Huge Tennis Tips: ATP Best Bets, Feb 16th
The prices here just look wrong given Royer’s form – he’s lost his last eight in a row and remains winless in 2026. Admittedly, his last victory did come against Herbert back in Paris qualifying last autumn but these are different conditions and he’s clearly carrying some mental baggage now.
Huge Tennis Tips: Royer v Herbert
Last week Royer looked to have the ideal chance to end his losing run but playing an opponent ranked outside the top 100, Christopher O’Connell, he blew match point in Rotterdam before losing a final-set tie-break. Those are the sort of losses which can really play on the mind and Royer must be wondering where his next win is coming from.
Arguably, the fact he’s now facing someone he knows he can beat only adds to the building pressure and Herbert comes into the clash having posted two good wins in qualifying. He dropped serve only once across the two matches with his first-serve points won percentage of 84 being particularly impressive. He also kept his second-serve figure well above 50%. The French veteran is too big here and worth a punt.
Huge Tennis Tips: Alcaraz v Rinderknech
The Big Two return to action in Doha this week but Alcaraz, last seen lifting the Australian Open trophy, may not get things all his own way in this one. The layers feel he will and give his French opponent a 6.5-game head start on the handicap – that’s a big one in a best-of-three-set match.
OK, Alcaraz has won all four previous meetings but he’s not covered that handicap in any of them – and two have been best-of-five encounters. Rinderknech’s serve keeps him in plenty of sets and he’s shown that via the number of tie-breaks he’s already played this season – there have been eight in his six matches so far in 2026. While some will suggest Alcaraz’s return game will prove too good, the fact is there has been a breaker in three of those four previous meetings which is a big reason why that handicap has never been covered.
Alcaraz could be forgiven for not doing a lot since that Melbourne final a couple of weeks ago and he’s also not got much experience of conditions here – he’s only played three matches in Doha and only won one of those in straight sets. He failed to cover a -6.5 handicap in any of them, too. Sadly, the price has moved since I started writing this piece but I’ll aim for the trend to continue and back the underdog with that big start.
Huge Tennis Tips: Ethan Quinn v Rafael Jodar
Jodar showed his potential with an upset of eventual champion Learner Tien at the Next Gen Finals at the back end of last year. However, he’s faced two top-100 opponents since and been convincingly beaten in both matches – first by Jakub Mensik at the Australian Open and then, last week in Dallas by Denis Shapovalov, who triumphed 6-1 6-2. Quite why he’s the favourite for this Delray Beach Open clash, I’m not sure. Quinn, the world number 74, has been in good form, beating seed Tallon Griekspoor and Hubert Hurkacz in Melbourne, where he also pushed Mensik to two tie-breaks.
Since then, he won a crucial point for USA in Davis Cup on clay in Hungary by defeating Fabian Marozsan. Given that effort, it was pretty good to win a round on indoor hard in Dallas just a couple of days later and losing to Marin Cilic, who went on to reach the semis, was no disgrace at all. For me, Quinn is the bet of the week at 1.83.
Huge Tennis Tips: Feb 16th Best Bets
Herbert to beat Royer @ 2.62 with kwiff
Rinderknech (+6.5) v Alcaraz @ 1.58 with kwiff
Quinn to beat Jodar @ 1.83 with kwiff
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