Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the 2026 Australian Open men’s singles title – read his exclusive kwiff preview below.
Australian Open 2026: Men’s Outright Preview
Australian Open 2026: Jannik Sinner (1.79)
World ranking (as of Jan 12): 2
Tournament history: W-W-4R-QF-1R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
2026 form: None
Made his big breakthrough here in 2024 by coming from two sets down to beat Daniil Medvedev in a thrilling final. Successfully defended his title last year so returns bidding to complete a hat-trick. Highly consistent from the baseline where his natural power allows him to dominate many opponents.
Has struggled against arch rival Carlos Alcaraz in recent times but did post a notable win over the Spaniard in the final match of 2025 at the ATP Finals. That was in his preferred indoor conditions though and while Sinner has won here in the past two years, he could still be vulnerable is temperatures climb as high as they can in Melbourne. Still, looks the one they all have to beat again.
Australian Open 2026: Carlos Alcaraz (2.4)
World ranking: 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): QF-QF-3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 6 times
2026 form: None
The reigning French and US Open champion arrives in Melbourne looking to complete the career Grand Slam – at the age of just 22, he would be the youngest to achieve that feat. However, Alcaraz is yet to go beyond the quarter-finals of this tournament, last year losing a cracker to Novak Djokovic.
Brilliant shot-maker from the baseline but also highly adept at the net, Alcaraz has all the skills required to win this title, though, and he is the one player who has consistently troubled Sinner in recent times – he’s won seven of their last nine meetings at tour level and also defeated the Italian in a recent exhibition match in Korea. Hard to bet against.
Australian Open 2026: Novak Djokovic (11.1)
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: SF-SF-W-W-W-W-4R-2R-W-W-QF-W-W-W-QF-QF-W-4R-1R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
Hardcourt form: None
It’s always hard to know what shape or form Djokovic is in these days as he plays little on the tour. However, the quest for a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title looks set to continue in Melbourne, where he has won 10 times before. What we do know is that last season the Serb’s focus was almost entirely on the Grand Slams and he duly reached the semi-finals of them all, beating Alcaraz here in Melbourne.
However, he was often clearly fatigued or carrying an injury come those last-four matches, three of which brought defeats to Sinner or Alcaraz. At the US Open, Djokovic admitted the Grand Slam format made it hard for him to win such matches at the age of 38. “Best-of-five makes it very, very difficult for me to play them, particularly if it’s at the end stages of the Grand Slams,” he said.
The pre-tournament signs haven’t been great on the fitness front – Djokovic withdrew from his scheduled warm-up event in Adelaide saying he was “not quite physically ready to compete”. He’ll fight hard again, no doubt, but it’s not difficult to envisage him coming up short again.
Australian Open 2026: Alexander Zverev (17.6)
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: RU-SF-2R-4R-QF-SF-4R-3R-3R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 3 times
Hardcourt form: Gp (1-1) United Cup
With a crunching first serve and one of the best backhands in the game, Zverev has long looked to have the tools to win a Grand Slam. Indeed, he has reached three finals – including here in Melbourne 12 months ago. But the main criticism he’s had during much of his career has been his lack of conviction in the big matches during which he often seems too passive.
There may be a lack of true belief when it’s really needed by the German. Zverev had plenty of injury issues to deal with in 2025, which made his third-placed finish in the rankings, all the more impressive. However, he’s already cut a frustrated figure in 2026, ranting during a United Cup loss to Hubert Hurkacz and angrily throwing a racquet during practice in Melbourne. Only a brave man would back him to finally deliver in the next fortnight.
Australian Open 2026: Daniil Medvedev (18.5)
World ranking: 12
Tournament history: 2R-RU-3R-RU-RU-4R-4R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Won, 2021 US Open
Hardcourt form: W Brisbane
Medvedev has been the big eyecatcher from the warm-up events, claiming the title in Brisbane. Admittedly, he got the fairly quick courts he likes up in Queensland but if he finds similar conditions in Melbourne – where they use the same surface and balls – the Russian can contend. He’s played in three of the last five finals here, losing both the 2022 and 2024 title matches from two sets up.
Is a former Grand Slam champion on hardcourts at the US Open though and looks to be getting back to the form that carried him to world number one. A change of coach last season to Thomas Johansson has seemingly reinvigorated him – Medvedev also finished 2025 well – and he should not be ruled out here.
Australian Open 2026: Best of the Rest
Felix Auger-Aliassime (44.0) was another player to finish 2025 strongly, making the semis of both the US Open and ATP Finals, the final of the Paris Masters and winning the title in Brussels. If the Canadian can reproduce that sort of form, he will be feared here.
However, a United Cup loss to Zizou Bergs wasn’t great and FAA has rarely been the most reliable player. His record at the Slams is pretty poor – while he has played in two semi-finals, he’s also lost in round one of 12 of his 26 appearances.
Joao Fonseca (47.0) is a rising star who looks to have a high ceiling and there are big hopes the teenager could be one to come forward and challenge the Sinner/Alcaraz duopoly in the future. The problem is that the Brazilian clearly comes into the new season with an injury issue – he had been due to compete in Brisbane and Adelaide but withdrew from both tournaments citing a back problem.
He stunned Andrey Rublev here in the first round 12 months ago but backing him in the current circumstances clearly carries risk. Further down the market, it might just pay to focus on players who are trying to bounce back from injury woes.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (67.0) struggled with a back problem throughout last season but said he was fit and firing at the recent United Cup, where he won all three of his singles matches, including one against top-10 star Taylor Fritz.
The Greek has made the semis, at least, in four of the last seven editions of this tournament, one at which he famously beat Roger Federer in 2019, so he clearly enjoys the conditions, as well as plenty of ex-pat support in the city.
Meanwhile, Hubert Hurkacz (72.0) helped Poland win that United Cup event and looked in surprisingly good nick given he hadn’t played since June. He won four of his five singles, beating Fritz and Zverev in the process, and his big serve is always a threat.
The problem for potential backers is his poor Slam record. While he has played in 16 quarter-finals at Masters 1000 level, the best-of-five format has proved harder to crack and he’s only been past the last 16 on two of his 28 appearances. Will likely need a good draw on Thursday if he is to contend.
By Andy Schooler
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