Andy Schooler returns to look at the best bets for the first-round action with ATP Tennis Tips at this week’s tournaments in Tokyo and Beijing. Read his latest preview, exclusively for kwiff.
ATP Tennis Tips: Andy Schooler’s Top Tokyo Tips
Medjedovic looks a tasty underdog on the Tokyo coupon. He’s already upset Rune once this season, beating the hometown hero in Copenhagen during a Davis Cup tie and should be the fresher player here. Rune has dashed across the Pacific from the Laver Cup on Sunday night – and that came straight after a Davis Cup weekend in Spain.
ATP Tennis Tips: Hamad Medjedovic v Holger Rune (Thu)
As well as plenty of travelling across many time zones, Rune is having to deal with a lot of surface transition. He played on clay in the Davis Cup, then headed to a slow indoor hardcourt in San Francisco. Now on outdoor hard, he’ll find the DecoTurf of Tokyo considerably quicker so it’s another potentially tricky switch.
And it’s not as if confidence is flowing, either. Rune lost from match point – indeed tie-point – up against Pedro Martinez as Spain fought back from 2-0 down to beat Denmark. And then at the Laver Cup, he suffered a disappointing loss to Francisco Cerundolo in straight sets. Conditions here should suit Medjedovic’s big-serving game and odds of 2.2 about the Serb repeating his earlier win over Rune look worth taking.
ATP Tennis Tips: Jordan Thompson v Brandon Nakashima (Thu)
Serve looks likely to hold sway a lot during this contest, with Nakashima a strong server but relatively weak returner. Thompson is also someone who holds regularly on the faster surfaces. The head-to-head reflects that somewhat, too, with five of their six meetings having featured a tie-break. Thompson has only broken 10% of the time across those matches with Nakashima’s figure of 19% significantly better but still not great.
That explains why he’s the favourite, while he also made the semis in Chengdu last week to show he’s in decent form. Thompson lost early in the same event, although his defeat to Alejandro Tabilo proved to be the first win on the road to the title for the Chilean. It featured just two breaks of serve. The bet I like here is over 22.5 games, one which has landed in five of those six previous meetings. Another tie-break would be no surprise in these conditions – although this isn’t the fastest hardcourt around, neither is it slow – and that would go a long way to landing this one.
ATP Tennis Tips: Marcos Giron v Sebastian Korda (Thu)
With only a handful of matches in Beijing priced up at time of writing, I’m going to stay in Tokyo for my final bet of the week. Giron served well in Chengdu last week as he bedded into the Asian swing well. The American went unbroken in his opening two matches, which included a win over seed Lorenzo Sonego, before losing in a final-set tie-break to Brandon Nakashima.
Korda, meanwhile, lost in round two in Hangzhou to local wild card Yibing Wu, a result which helps highlight his hit-and-miss nature. The former world junior number one is only just back from injury, which saw him quit both the US Open and the preceding Winston-Salem Open, and Giron is capable of capitalising if Korda remains short of his best. Admittedly, Korda is 2-1 up on the head-to-head but the pair haven’t met wince 2022 so I’m happy to take a chance on the outsider.
ATP Tennis Tips: Tokyo, Round 1
Medjedovic to beat Rune @ 2.2 with kwiff
Thompson/Nakashima Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 with kwiff
Giron to beat Korda @ 2.3 with kwiff
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