I am still shaking from the epic encounter between Luke Humphries and Joe Cullen which saw darts in 2023 go out with a bang. But what did not go out with a bang was Luke Humphries, although he came mightily close… and it means that our tip for the title at the start of the tournament is still alive.
“Cool Hand” had to battle back from two sets behind once again to win through to the next stage of the PDC World Championship, but this time he did it with darts much more reminiscent of the form that has seen him pick up so many major titles recently. The world number three will become world number one for the first time if he makes the final, but there are significant challenges ahead and, as happy as you can be for one man in his moment of triumph, you have to feel sorry for Joe Cullen, whose heroic effort could so easily have seen him reach the quarter-finals for a first time. Agony and ecstasy all at once; such is sport.
Rivalries
We are now down to the last eight, and the headlines are all about the 16 year old sensation Luke Littler. How could they not be? This young lad is a sensational talent, and if you cannot get excited by his prodigious ability, why do you even bother watching the sport?
Gary Anderson has had a few things to say about the media fuelling expectation of this youngster, which he believes could end up “ruining him”, but he is in the quarter-finals of the biggest tournament in the world – it is difficult not to talk about him.
But, do you know what? Let’s give it a try, because it is two of the other quarter-final ties that most intrigue me.
Chris Dobey versus Rob Cross continues a rivalry that has produced some of the most mind-blowing displays in recent years, with 2018 world champion Cross hitting averages of 111 (or more) on three separate occasions in the last two years, but still losing every single one of those matches to “Hollywood”.
There have been victories for “Voltage” (in fact the head to head record is very even, and includes two televised wins at the World Matchplay for Cross), but something about this matchup seems to bring the best out of both.
It is a repeat of their last 16 meeting here last year, which Dobey won 4-2 and in which both men averaged in three figures, and I believe they will excel again. They need to hit 20 maximums to beat the line set in the betting (at 1.93), but over a best of nine sets encounter, I think they could comfortably manage it – especially with Dobey hitting 180s at a higher rate than anyone else still left in the tournament.
The other meeting that continues a great rivalry this year is that of Humphries and Dave Chisnall. Prior to Humphries becoming a major-title-hoover in recent months, it was the European Tour where he had excelled – winning four titles last year and making at least the final of half the events he entered in the last two seasons.
The only thing stopping him equalling that tally of titles this year has been “Chizzy”, who has won three finals against Humphries, despite ton-plus averages and even a nine darter from “Cool Hand” in one of them. Once again we are faced with a clash between players who seem to bring the best out of one another, and once again I scurry away from confidently predicting a winner and flee to the safety of the 180 markets. Over 21.5 (at 1.75) looks daunting, but in a close game featuring a lot of legs, these two are more than capable. I still think Humphries and Dobey are the likely semi-finalists, but I do not envisage either having an easy game.
A Coronation for MvG?
This tournament has seen big names departing at regular intervals – Wright, Wade, Price, and most recently Gary Anderson (the last two both victims of the majestic Brendan Dolan), but the great Michael van Gerwen remains. Not only has he avoided any slip-ups, he has been entirely untroubled in his run to the quarter-finals. Not even the in-form Stephen Bunting could give “Mighty Mike” a concern, and many believe that he will power past everyone to claim a fourth world title. I would urge caution in that assumption.
The Dutchman remains possibly the most likely player on the planet to produce the spectacular – it is he who is most likely to break records or hit nine darters. In my eyes he is one of the greatest living sportspeople on Earth, but there are frailties and inconsistencies that were not there at his peak in 2016-17. He has exited before the semi-final stage in half the major events in the last 12 months (despite winning two and losing three finals). His Alexandra Palace campaign last year was even more dominant than this year’ until all of a sudden it somehow was not, and Michael Smith beat him in the final. Having said that, I still expect him to smash his way past Scott Williams.
If you are looking for a tasty angle on that match though, the value is backing Scott Williams to hit more 180s than “Mighty Mike”. Before you think I am mad, consider MvG’s proclivity for switching to the treble-nineteens. He has been hitting a lot of maximums in this event, but is likely in any given game to change his method and start going for 177 and 174 more regularly. That opens the door for a good 180-hitter like Williams to steal a march in that metric (at an attractive 2.35), even if I do not think it will be enough to sway the scoreline in his favour.
PDC World Darts Championship 2024 Selected Bets
– Over 19.5 in the 180s between Dobey and Cross at 1.75
– Over 21.5 in the 180s between Humphries and Chisnall at 1.75
– Scott Williams to hit more 180s than Michael van Gerwen at 2.35
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By Dan Dawson
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