Dan Dawson’s UK Open Preview
The UK Open Championship is three-days of non-stop darting action in Minehead, and Dan Dawson previews the ones to keep an eye on this weekend.
Are you suffering from Big Name Fatigue? Is the cycle of the same select group of darts superstars playing each other on a loop bringing you out in a rash? Well, my friends, I have the antidote – the UK Open!
A tournament so vast, so unpredictable, and so varied, that we genuinely have no clue what is going to happen. It has the biggest names in the sport, of course, but it also has every other member of the professional circuit, it has youth players, it has second-tier Challenge Tour players, and it even has players who’ve qualified from the pub! It also has an open draw at the end of each round, so if Michael van Gerwen does end up playing Luke Humphries, it might be in the final, but it could also be in the fourth round.
Making Sense Of The Senseless
For the first 12 years of this event, we had a different combination of finalists. That was only brought to an end in 2016 when MvG played Wright in the final for the second year running, and while Van Gerwen made the final once again last year (for the fourth time), he was beaten by the rank outsider Andrew Gilding. If anything sums up the possibility of the improbable in this tournament, it was “Goldfinger” going on to take the title.
Now this is all well and good for the event as a spectacle, but how do you make sense of it as a punter? Truth is, you don’t. You study the form, develop your hunches, and then pray to whatever deity you hold dear that they do not get drawn against Luke Humphries in their opening game. However, we have seen deep runs in recent events from lesser known names – Gilding beat Adam Gawlas in the semi-finals last year, Keane Barry and Willie O’Connor both reached the semis two years ago, and the 2019 event (won by an emerging Nathan Aspinall) featured not only “The Asp”, but Josh Payne and Simon Stevenson in the quarter-finals. So… whom to back?
The Obvious Pick
If you are looking for one of the likely winners, then inevitably you will be picking from the names that have been knocking lumps out of each other in the Premier League and World Series events already this year. Granted, Michael van Gerwen is the leading light in those events, and he goes off as favourite (6.50) for the title this year, but I do not have a huge amount of confidence in him justifying that position. “Mighty Mike” has thrown in some brilliance over the last few weeks, but has also ridden his luck a little.
The player throwing the highest average in the Premier League this year is actually Luke Humphries, but things have not fallen his way. There is naturally a lot more focus on “Cool Hand” following his brilliant run of titles which culminated in his World Championship victory, but I think he is playing well, and the results will start to come if he continues in this fashion.
Let us not forget that Humphries has won four of the last six major titles (only missing out on the European Championship and the recent Masters), and I think his odds of 8.30 are better value than MvG’s. Whilst it was not held in this venue due to Covid at the time, the UK Open was the scene of Humphries’ first appearance in a major final, and I still have faith that he is the most likely winner of the title, three years after losing out to James Wade in Milton Keynes.
The Pro Tour Picks
The start of the Pro Tour events in the last month gives us a wealth of information to peruse for those players not involved in the Premier League and World Series events so far this year, and there are some standout candidates to select.
From four events, Ryan Searle has made three finals and won one of them. In fact, he averaged almost 112 in the final of the opening event, which he lost to Luke Littler. The man is in form, and when he is in form, he is a match for anyone. His occasional practice partner (and 2018 UK Open champion) Gary Anderson has been chucking bigger numbers than anyone though, averaging more than 102 for the calendar year so far – the only player to be in three figures.
Anderson is rated as fifth favourite (at 10.60), whilst you get nearly twice that for Searle (20.80), which looks like the value pick – particularly seeing as Searle’s one run to a major final so far came in this venue, at the Players Championship Finals in 2021.
My other recommendations based on what we’ve seen so far would be the Australian number one Damon Heta (40.00) and my perennial pick nowadays Ross Smith (47.00) – with Heta having brilliantly won the most recent title, and Ross Smith continuing to play excellent darts with insufficient reward. His luck will change… it must do.
The Outsiders
To go deep in this tournament you have to play some excellent darts, but you can be helped out by the draw. Robert Thornton produced arguably the most impressive UK Open victory in history back in 2012, beating world champions Mark Webster, Gary Anderson and Dennis Priestley, before overcoming Premier League players Wes Newton and Dave Chisnall, and then beating Phil Taylor 11-5 in the final.
Those runs are rare. If an outsider is going to have an impact on this event, they are much more likely to do so by avoiding the bigger names. However, with the landscape of the game being what it is, and there being a better strength in depth than ever, there is scope for the lesser lights to find themselves in the latter stages.
I am very interested in seeing how a couple of the Belgians get on – Mike de Decker (115.00) is hitting 180s at a rate better than anyone apart from Gary Anderson, and new Tour Card holder Andy Baetens (also 115.00) is a monstrous talent. Both are capable of having deep runs in this event. I expect WDF World Champ Baetens to come through the opening three rounds and be in the hat for round four, but De Decker potentially has a very tough third round match against the exciting young Dutch talent Wessel Nijman (140.00). Whoever comes through that section of the draw could be a real test for whomever they face in the future rounds.
Selected tips:
Luke Humphries to win @ 8.30
Ross Smith to win @ 47.00
Andy Baetens to win @ 115.00
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By Dan Dawson
