With the Ashes already lost, will the tour go from bad to worse for England; Andy Schooler previews The Boxing Day Test that starts at The MCG on Friday.
The Ashes 2026: Boxing Day Test Preview
Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia
Date/Time: Thursday December 25, 2330 GMT (5 days)
TV: TNT Sports 1
Around 90,000 people will head to the MCG on Boxing Day for what is essentially now a dead rubber. Plenty of those fans will be rightly disappointed by England’s efforts so far Down Under. They’ve lost all three Tests so far and have been outplayed. Yet a case can still be made for them at 2.95.
Boxing Day Test: England Expects
It should be remembered they went favourites in-play during the games in Perth and Brisbane, while there was certainly fight with the bat and ball in the second innings in Adelaide, albeit it was a case of too little, too late. Australia have injury problems too – Pat Cummins looks set to miss out here, joining the injured Nathan Lyon and Josh Hazlewood on the sidelines. That’s three-quarters of their first-choice bowling attack. On the batting front, Steve Smith also remains doubtful.
Boxing Day Test: Changes Coming
Quite who plays for England is anyone’s guess. Changes should be made but it’s not obvious who the replacements will be, barring Jacob Bethell who seems likely to replace Ollie Pope at three in the batting order. Jofra Archer has been their best bowler but with the series already gone, there must be at least some in the England camp now thinking about how to get their star to the T20 World Cup in peak condition – that is only six weeks away. In short, he’s not a certain starter, even in what should be favourable conditions.
Melbourne is a venue which has suited the bowlers in recent times – the last five scores by the team batting first read 474-318-189-185-195. Meanwhile, England were skittled out for just 68 during their last Test here in 2021. The relatively low scoring is also shown in the Sheffield Shield matches which have been played at ‘The G’ in the past couple of years, with the only game this season seeing a top team score of 255.
I always feel a low-scoring venue gives the underdogs a better chance, albeit I’m not prepared to back this England team right now, especially given the doubts over team selection. I am happy to look for angles regarding a low-scoring game though and the one I like most is for there to be no century made in the match. This has landed in two of the last four Tests played here, while neither of last season’s two Sheffield Shield matches at the MCG saw a ton.
Boxing Day Test: Awkward Openers
England’s batters have struggled terribly and even a second-string Aussie attack has been able to cause problems – remember Cummins, Hazlewood and Lyon also missed the game in Brisbane. For me, a price of 3.9 about no century looks value added. Sticking with the low-runs theme, I’m going to back Jake Weatherald to struggle again.
The Aussie opener made 72 in Brisbane but aside from that, he’s made little impact with the pre-series concerns about his ability at this level now looking justified. His first-innings runs line here is set at 24.5. He’s gone under that in five of six innings in the series thus far and, on a ground which should favour the bowlers, can do so again.
Boxing Day Test: Brilliant Boland
Finally, let’s also back Scott Boland to be Australia’s top bowler in the first innings. He’s bowled very well in the series so far and could easily have taken several more than the 11 wickets he currently has. Aided by his remarkable 6-7 against England n debut during the last Ashes series in Australia, Boland’s MCG average is currently at an excellent 14.62.
Last season the Victorian took six wickets in the Test against India, three in each innings, and won this market. Mitchell Starc is the obvious favourite but his MCG record isn’t great – he averages 33.26 here, well down on his Test career figure of 26.5. With the other members of the attack lacking experience, Boland gets the nod.
Boxing Day Test Best Bets 2026
Any player to score 100 ‘no’ (match) @ 3.9 with kwiff
Weatherald under 24.5 runs (1st inns) @ 1.8 with kwiff
Boland Australia top bowler (1st inns) @ 2.65 with kwiff
Please note that the information provided in this Boxing Day Test preview is for entertainment purposes only. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided. Any action you take upon the information on this article is strictly at your own risk, and we will not be liable for any losses and damages in connection with the use of our article. We do not encourage gambling and remind you to gamble responsibly.
18+ | BeGambleAware.org
