Introduction
The three-day Aintree spring meeting will this year run from Thursday 11th to Saturday 13th April and will culminate with the Randox sponsored Grand National – the most famous and exciting horse race in the world.
The race will be run over an extended four-and-a-quarter miles over thirty unique fences. It is the ultimate examination of horse and rider and remains a part of the British fabric and culture. Australia has, courtesy of the Melbourne Cup, a “race that stops a nation,” but there is only one Grand National.
Aintree racecourse has two courses. Eighteen of the twenty-one races are run on the inside track, which is known as the Mildmay course, with just the Foxhunter Chase on Thursday, Topham Chase on Friday, and the Grand National itself run over the unique and daunting National course and fences.
The Grand National Festival continues to thrive and, one could argue, is superior to the Cheltenham Festival itself with no less than eleven Grade 1 races over the three days including four successive G1 races to open the meeting on Thursday.
Grand National Festival Betting – The Irish at Aintree
When considering betting on the Grand National meeting we need to look closely at the Irish challenge. When we looked at the history of the Cheltenham Festival, we highlighted the domination of the Irish raiders at Prestbury Park in recent years.
The Irish, especially Gordon Elliot and Willie Mullins, will also have a strong raiding party on Merseyside this spring but numerically not as large as at Cheltenham.
There were eight Irish trained winners across the three days last year including six successes in Grade 1 events. Note they were out of luck in the National – winner trained in Scotland – but saddled seven of the first eight home! Something to consider when betting online on the Grand National.
Back in 2022 there were six Irish trained winners including four G1 victories with Irish trained horses filling the first three places in the National.
Grand National Festival Betting – The Layout
Find out the layout and what to watch each day of the festival below:
Grand National Festival 2024 Day 1 – Thursday 11th April
What is unimaginatively called “The Opening Day” by the Aintree executive (formerly Liverpool Day) opens with four Grade 1’s followed by the Foxhunters’ Chase over the National fences, a 2m handicap chase named in honour of the legendary three-time National winner Red Rum and a G2 Bumper to finish the day. Something for everyone.
The Manifesto Novices’ Chase 2024
The opening Novice Chase over two-and-a-half miles and sixteen fences is named after Manifesto who ran in the Grand National eight times between 1895 and 1904, winning twice, finishing third on three occasions and fourth once.
It has been run as a Grade 1 contest since 2012 and note Ireland have only saddled the winner once although that was last year when Banbridge – a likely runner in Friday’s March Chase – scored for Joseph O’Brien.
We will not know the entries for the races at the Grand National Festival – save the Grand National – until the six-day stage.
The Aintree Bowl 2024
Shishkin is unbeaten in two starts at Aintree and won the G1 Bowl over 3m 1f and nineteen fences twelve months ago for Nicky Henderson. I have never considered Shiskin a Gold Cup winner, but the flat Mildmay course is ideal for the Lambourn veteran.
No 11-year-old has won the race since 2005 but he would have won the King George had he not stumbled two out when leading at Kempton Park on Boxing Day.
Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner of the corresponding race on six previous occasions and his Bravemansgame would also look an ideal candidate for the race although he has not won in two previous runs at the track.
The Aintree Hurdle 2024
The last eight renewals of the 2m 4f Aintree Hurdle have been shared by Ireland and Nicky Henderson who saddled the Champion Hurdler Constitution Hill to victory twelve months ago. If the latter has defended his Cheltenham crown in March, he will be a very short price in the Aintree 2024 betting, but there is a possibility that he will bypass the race and wait for Punchestown this spring.
If he does, I think the prize will cross the Irish Sea as I would imagine the Henry De Bromhead trained Bob Olinger and the Willie Mullins trained Impaire Et Passe will both have the race as an end-of-term objective.
Grand National Festival Day 2 2024 – Ladies Day Friday
Not quite the glamour of Royal Ascot perhaps but Friday (Ladies Day) of Aintree has its own unique atmosphere. The people of Merseyside and the northwest come out to party in their Sunday best on Ladies Day; and party they do.
The action on the track is just as stunning too. The big betting race of the day is the Topham Chase, a handicap over just over a circuit of the Grand National course. South Wales trainer Peter Bowen has saddled the winner five times although Willie Mullins has trained the winner twice in the last four years.
When considering betting on the Topham Chase do note that there has not been a winning favourite in the race since Gwanako for Paul Nicholls back in 2008 and he was returned the 7/1 joint favourite. Interestingly only one of the last eleven winners had won their previous race.
The grey Bill Baxter caused a 20/1 shock when winning in 2023 and the Warren Greatrex trained 8-year-old will be back for more in April. My long-range fancy for the race is Harper’s Brook although we will know more once the entries are announced.
Melling Chase 2024 (now known as the Marsh Chase)
One of my favourite races on the jumps calendar is the Marsh Chase over 2m 4f and sixteen fences on the Mildmay course.
It is a race that has been won by some of the equine greats of the game with Viking Flagship, Moscow Flyer, Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre among its illustrious role of honour.
Paul Nicholls has saddled the winner a record four times and his Pic D’Orhy won the race twelve months ago, but I would like to see Henderson’s Jonbon step up in trip beyond the minimum distance for the first time.
A winner of twelve of his fifteen career starts, Jonbon jumped poorly when second in the Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham last time, and I do not think he will beat the Mullins’ trained El Fabiolo over two miles in the Champion Chase in March. They may go half a stride slower over this additional half-mile and he would be my selection if considering betting on the Marsh Chase.
Grand National Festival Day 3 – Grand National Day 2024
Maghull Novices’ Chase 2024
Two horses who I think will love the flat, tight Mildmay course are My Mate Mossie and JPR One, but both hold Cheltenham engagements with My Mate Mozzie also having the option of running in a handicap. The former could get an entry for the Red Rum on the opening day but a fast run two miles on spring ground would be his optimum conditions. This G1 contest over the minimum trip of two miles is a wonderful curtain raiser to National Day.
Willie Mullins has saddled the winner of this 2m Grade 1 Novice Chase twice in the last seven renewals and he may consider running Facile Vega and/or Il Etait Temps in 2024.
Liverpool Hurdle 2024
I think there will be a new name on the role of honour for the Liverpool Hurdle over three miles and thirteen flights of hurdles although the 12-y-old Sire Du Berlais, who has snared the prize for the last couple of years, is likely to be back for a hat-trick bid.
Stablemate Irish Point won at the corresponding meeting last year and would be my idea of the winner at this stage but do note he is best fresh, and his main target is the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
Sir Gerhard is a personal favourite and should enjoy the track, but Willie Mullins has never saddled the winner of the race. He would certainly enter the equation if declared to face the starter.
Modifications to the Grand National 2024
Before we consider the Grand National Festival betting opportunities in more detail, it is worth considering the amendments to the race that will come into effect in 2024.
Horse racing, like everything in life, needs to evolve and adapt and, with a “relentless focus on welfare,” the Jockey Club announced in October significant alterations to the race for the 2024 renewal with the health and safety of horse and jockey the priority. The modifications will help preserve the rich history of the race.
Some have suggested, and many will argue, the changes have gone too far and have diluted the great race. I disagree and welcome the adaptations which are summarised below.
(i) The maximum field size has been reduced from 40 to 34 runners.
(ii) There will be a standing start so the runners will not be on the walk or trot as the tape goes up. This is to decrease the speed at which they meet their first fence. Note there were five casualties including a fatality at the first fence in 2023.
(iii) The opening fence has been moved sixty yards closer to the start.
(iv) Fence 11 has been reduced in size by a couple of inches with its drop on the landing side also lessened.
(v) The start time of the race in 2024 has yet to be announced. There are concerns that on a warm sunny day a start time of 5.15 is too late, with the ground drying out too much.
Grand National Fences
All sixteen fences on the National course are jumped twice in the race apart from the water jump and the Chair. Below is a background to some of the most famous obstacles on the course.
Fence 6 & 22 Becher’s Brook
Captain Martin Becher took shelter in the brook in the first National of 1839 having been catapulted into the ditch from his mount who refused before the fence. He hid in the brook until all the other horses had crossed the fence before remounting.
It remains the most famous fence on the course although it has been made fairer to horse and rider down the years. The whole field managed to clear Becher’s on the first circuit last year although there remains a frightening 6ft drop on the landing side of the fence.
Fence 7 & 23 Foinavon
The smallest fence on the course, but it will always have a part in Aintree folklore following the mass pile up back in 1967 so wonderfully described by Michael O’Hehir when Foinavon took advantage of the melee at the 23rd fence to shoot clear.
There were 28 horses still standing as they crossed Becher’s on the second circuit including Foinavon who jumped Becher’s in 22nd yet was 30 lengths and more ahead of the field after the next fence. Seventeen of the runners remounted and made a vain chase but Foinavon still had 15 lengths in hand of runner up Honey End at the line.
Foinavon was returned at a Starting Price of 100/1, yet he was paid out at a record 444/1 on the Tote. The smallest fence on the course at 4ft 6ins (1.37m) it was renamed the Foinavon fence in 1984.
Fence 8 & 24 The Canal Turn
The horses turn a full 90 degrees after jumping the Canal Turn. If they don’t, they can end up in the Leeds and Liverpool Canal and you see many of the jockeys take the fence at an angle to try and save valuable ground.
Fence 9 & 25 Valentine’s Brook
One of the biggest fences on the course measuring 5ft high and 3ft 3in wide with a brook on the landing side measuring 5ft 6in. It is named after a horse of the same name who, allegedly, jumped the fence hind legs first back in 1840!
Fence 15 The Chair
At 5ft 2in The Chair is both the tallest and broadest fence on the course with a 6-foot-wide ditch on the take-off side.
It was the scene of the only human fatality in the race when jockey Joe Wynne sustained fatal injuries from a fall at the fence in 1862. In the early days of the race the judge sat on a chair behind the fence and recorded the distances although the practice ended in the 1850s. The monument where the chair stood is still there.
It was known as the Monument Jump until the 1930s but for the last ninety years it has been known as The Chair.
Grand National Festival Betting 2024 Summary
The weights for the great race will be announced in mid-February and there is generally a flurry of betting on the Grand National after this date.
Seven of the last 14 National winners have carried 11st or more which negates the old theory that you need to look for horses carrying a low weight over such a marathon trip.
It is the only race in the calendar that the BHA Head of Handicapping Dominic Gardiner-Hill can deviate from the official handicap mark and compress the handicap. The goal is to create a more competitive and higher quality race.
The legendary Red Rum remains the last horse to carry top-weight to victory, but Many Clouds carried 11st 9lbs to victory in 2015 and you can no longer put a line through the horses at the top of the handicap.
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