Trainer Willie Mullins monopolised the eight Grade 1’s over the two days at the Dublin Racing Festival although 50% were won by horses who went into the race not considered the stable first string.
A quick review of the action below with one eye on the forthcoming spring Festivals.
Dublin Racing Festival 2024 Day 1 Review
Irish Arkle
I do not think jockey Michael O’Sullivan will look back too fondly on the ride he gave MARINE NATIONALE when he rode a very confident race and made his challenge down the centre to the far side of the track. He was beaten when blundering at the last on what was just his second chase start.
Looking back on the chases over the two days of the Dublin Racing Festival it appeared, to my eyes anyway, that the better ground in the home straight was nearest the stands’ rail while O’Sullivan made his run down the slowest part of the track. That would not have made the difference between winning and losing of course but, it certainly wouldn’t have helped his cause either.
I know he lost his unbeaten record, and we now know he is not the equine superstar many hoped he would be, but I still believe he is the one to beat in the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival next month.
I remember trainer Barry Connell having his doubts about the suitability of the (soft) ground for the gelding ahead of the Supreme Novice Hurdle twelve months ago and it did appear to blunt his speed at the weekend. I thought he jumped efficiently rather than spectacularly in Saturday’s race, and I do not think the experience will be lost on him – or his young jockey.
If nothing comes to light in the week after the race, I expect Connell to have his mount spot on for Cheltenham and I would expect him to reverse the form with the four who finished ahead of him at Leopardstown. Better ground would suit – genuine good to soft would be ideal – and I do think the 5/2 available Non Runner No Bet is more than fair. We have the insurance that if something does come to light and he misses the race, we will get our money back.
He was odds on in the betting for the Arkle Trophy at 8/13 before Leopardstown but we can now back him at 5/2 Non Runner No Bet. That is fair.
Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup
The 2023 Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs was imperious in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas yet was no better than workmanlike in the Irish Gold Cup last weekend when his jumping lacked the fluency of his previous win.
A 7L winner of the Gold Cup at Cheltenham last year he remains the one to beat in defence of his crown next month and remember he didn’t really have the run of the race last March when he was caught too far out of his ground and made a significant mistake three out. That form hasn’t worked out particularly well, but who is going to seriously challenge him in March?
Gerri Colombe was put firmly in his place to the tune of 23L at Leopardstown over Xmas and shunned the rematch last weekend, but I was not convinced he gave his true running in the Savills Chase, and I expect to see a different animal at Cheltenham next month.
You must be an eternal optimist and/or huge fan of Gordon Elliott to think he can turn the tables on the champ, but if recommending a bet on the Cheltenham Gold Cup at this stage I would suggest Gerri Colombe at 9/2 in the market without Galopin Des Champs.
Gerri Colombe has four Grade 1 successes to his name over fences and he really ought to have won the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham last year just failing to get back up over three miles. His novice chase form is not working out particularly well, but this hardly looks like a vintage renewal of the Gold Cup, and he was outjumped at most obstacles by Galopin Des Champs at Xmas. He might just be the forgotten horse of the race.
Dublin Racing Festival 2024 Day 2 Review
1.40 2m G1 Novice Hurdle
Ballyburn was, arguably, the most impressive winner across the two days and he will be a short price favourite for either the opening 2m Supreme on Tuesday or Wednesday’s 2m 4f Baring Bingham Novice Hurdle although I got the impression connections were swaying towards the Skybet sponsored Festival curtain-raiser.
At the time of writing, he is a best price of 7/4 for the Supreme following his 7L success on Sunday when he jumped superbly under Paul Townend. Note the firms who are offering the concession Non Runner No Bet all bet 5/4 given there is the possibility he will step back up in distance. The ground was soft on Sunday and if conditions are similar on the opening day of the Festival – they will not be quicker than good to soft – then I would expect him to take up this engagement.
Connections are unlikely to make the decision until the 48-hour declaration stage but, whatever engagement he takes up, he is likely to be extremely hard to beat.
2.10 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
I came away from the Betway sponsored 2m G1 Novice hurdle at Aintree in 2022 thinking El Fabiolo should have won and that Jonbon would never beat him again – certainly not at two miles.
El Fabiolo gained his revenge on Jonbon in the Arkle last year and Sunday’s fluent success in the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase cemented his claims as being the Champion Chaser in waiting. I have said previously that I feel Jonbon is now ready for a step up in trip and the Marsh Chase at Aintree the following month is likely to be his best chance of further Grade 1 success in the short term.
I wasn’t overly impressed with El Fabiolo’s jumping at either Leopardstown or in the Hilly Way at Cork on his reappearance, but he has such a very high cruising speed and will, in all probability, only have to jump adequately to give Mullins a third successive win in the race following the victories of stablemate Energumene in 2022 & 2023.
El Fabiolo merits banker material for the Cheltenham Festival in a division that looks decidedly weak.
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