Andy Schooler previews the final round of the Premier League season with relegation and European issues to be decided on Sunday.
Premier League Betting Tips: Matchday 38
When looking for a team to win, I want to make sure it’s in a game with something at stake and this one fits the bill. Both sides go into it with a chance of qualifying for Europe next season. A victory for Chelsea would almost certainly seal it; Sunderland need to win and hope Brentford (at Liverpool) don’t.
Premier League Best Bets: Sunderland v Chelsea
I’m pretty sure getting into either the Europa League or Conference League means more to the Black Cats than the Blues so I’m a little surprised to see the hosts on offer here at 3.4. They posted a decent win at Everton last weekend, albeit they were aided by some questionable defending, while they also held Manchester United in their last home game.
Chelsea beat Spurs in midweek but it was just their third win in 14 in all competitions and they’ve also been shoddy defensively with no clean sheet in their last 15 league games. That was back in mid-January. The Chelsea players haven’t covered themselves in glory this season and I’m not at all convinced they are that bothered about Europa or Conference football next season. One suspects that new boss Xabi Alonso would be better off without it, too.
Premier League Best Bets: Notts’ Forest v Bournemouth
Getting with in-form goalscorers has proved a profitable ploy for this column this season. Morgan Gibbs-White, Will Osula and Ismail Sarr all fit that description ahead of the final day but none of them plays for a team with something at stake which is rather off-putting, especially given the layers are now well aware of their potential. Instead, I’m going to turn to Rayan.
The Bournemouth winger has scored in three of his last four and, crucially, is playing in a massive game for his club. Bournemouth, unbeaten in 17 in the EPL, know a point in this one would see them finish sixth – a possible Champions League position. OK, they don’t need to win but everything we know about boss Andoni Iraola says he won’t be sending out a team to play for a draw.
The Cherries’ players will also want to give their departing manager a winning send off and with Forest having nothing to play for, I see Bournemouth winning this, potentially scoring a few goals in the process. Rayan, who has averaged 2.32 shots per 90 minutes since arriving in England, gets the nod.
Premier League Best Bets: Fulham v Newcastle
I like to follow some final-day trends when matchday 38 of a Premier League season rolls around. No-card games are much more common on this weekend than any other – two of last season’s 15 came on the last day – while overall card counts also tend to be lower. With the pressure off certain sides, goals also often fly in. We’ve had six-goal games in three of the last four seasons, with 2023’s conclusion featuring a 4-4 draw between Southampton and Liverpool.
That game meant nothing and that rings true for Fulham v Newcastle this weekend. With both having missed out on Europe, all pressure has been removed and I would not be surprised to see a wide-open game. Yes, Fulham have struggled for goals of late but their expected-goals figure has been way higher than their actual output, while Newcastle arrive having scored seven in their last three.
The aforementioned Osula is on fire with five goals in his last six games, while even Nick Woltemade rediscovered his scoring touch last weekend. Injury issues for Sandro Tonali and Joelinton could leave Newcastle more open in the middle of the park, too. All things considered, I think this is a game which could deliver goals and taking a punt on over 5.5 goals is the shout.
Premier League Best Bets 2025/26: Matchday 38
Sunderland to beat Chelsea @ 3.4 with kwiff
Rayan to score anytime v Newcastle @ 2.95 with kwiff
Over 5.5 goals in Fulham v Newcastle @ 7.0 with kwiff
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