One team, one scorer and one props play – Andy Schooler’s Premier League Best Bets, including what looks a cracking shots bet in the top flight this weekend.
Premier League Best Bets: Dec 5th 2025
Arsenal are now 18 games unbeaten in all competitions and come into this contest with a five-point lead in the Premier League. But history tells us all good things come to an end; punters just need to get on at the right time. Well, there are plenty of signs that this could be where the Gunners misfire.
Premier League Best Bets: Aston Villa v Arsenal
Notably, they have injury worries, especially in that famously tight defence. Gabriel remains out, while, as I write, William Saliba and Cristhian Mosquera are both doubts. The same can be said of key midfielder Declan Rice – he’s played in every Premier League game this season, starting all but one. He’d be missed. Then there are their opponents – Villa have won 12 of their last 14 in all competitions and now sit third in the table. A win here puts them right in the title race.
Key has been their rock-solid form at Villa Park where they’ve now lost just one of their last 31. Twenty-three of those matches have been won, including the last eight. Admittedly, Arsenal did win here last season but that’s their only victory over Unai Emery’s men in the last four meetings, with Villa’s 2023/24 double effectively costing Arsenal the title that season. As an added boost for Villa, Ollie Wtakins ended his goal drought with a double in midweek. All things considered, Villa look worth chancing at 3.9, with the double-chance market another option – it’s 1.76 that Arsenal don’t win.
Premier League Best Bets: Leeds v Liverpool
For those who like their expected-goals data, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has become something of a figure of fun. In the past couple of seasons, no Premier League player has had a bigger gap between their expected goals and actual goals figures. And I don’t mean in a good way. Essentially, he’s been unable to convert chances but this is a player who has played for England – and one worth backing when confidence is high.
And that’s the case right now, both with the player himself and the team. Daniel Farke changed formation a game and a half ago and they’ve since scored five goals, beating Chelsea and also ‘winning’ the second half 2-1 against Manchester City. Calvert-Lewin scored in both of those games. Leeds have looked much more threatening with DCL alongside Lukas Nmecha up front and the former Everton man will doubtless be highly motivated to score against Liverpool here.
While the Reds did get back to winning ways by beating lowly West Ham last weekend, Sunderland highlighted that their issues are far from solved with a draw at Anfield in midweek. They’ve won just four of their last 14 in all competitions and have conceded 11 goals in their last five games. An in-form Calvert-Lewin may well cause problems…
Premier League Best Bets: Fulham v Crystal Palace
I’d say Daniel Munoz has been one of the Premier League’s best signings of the past couple of years – and he’s also been the punter’s pal too. He’s consistently been under-rated in a variety of markets, including anytime scorer – he’s scored in three of his last eight Premier League games – and anytime assist (two so far this season). That seems largely to be because he’s known as a right-back but he’s played wing-back under Oliver Glasner and loves to get forward in that modern way.
He’s 7.0 to score again here but the best bet looks to come in the shots markets. The Colombian has managed at least one in 13 of his last 17 appearances for Palace and so I’m surprised to see him at 1.86 for another here. Fulham do have a strong home record but they did ship five goals at home to Man City in midweek and I’d expect Munoz to get into some threatening positions at some stage – remember he’s also a set-piece threat.
Premier League Best Bets 2025/26: Matchday 15
Aston Villa to beat Arsenal @ 3.9 with kwiff
Calvert-Lewin 1+ goal v Liverpol @ 3.1 with kwiff
Munoz over 0.5 shots v Fulham @ 1.86 with kwiff
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