Andy Schooler runs the rule over this weekend’s action, picking out his FA Cup Best Bets ahead of the 5th round of club football’s oldest and iconic cup competition.
Andy Schooler’s FA Cup Best Bets: Exclusive Round 5 Tips
FA Cup Best Bets: Crystal Palace v Millwall
Everyone likes an FA Cup upset, especially punters, right? Well, my eye is drawn to Millwall at 9.0 here. They’ve lost just one of their last nine in all competitions and boast a strong defensive record – only the top five have conceded fewer goals in this season’s Championship. In their last six away games, they’ve kept four clean sheets.
Palace are also on a strong run but it’s notable that they’ve lost two of their last three at Selhurst Park, where they struggled past Stockport in round three. As always in this competition, the worry for punters is the potential for team changes and Millwall do have a big midweek league game coming up as they bid to maintain their play-off push.
Palace made plenty in that Stockport game but went stronger against Doncaster in the fourth round. However, that game came eight days after their previous league game. This time the gap is just four. This isn’t the greatest bet in the world and you may want to wait for the team news which comes an hour before Saturday’s 1215 kick-off, but Millwall certainly have potential at a big price.
FA Cup Best Bets: Newcastle v Brighton
For a goalscorer selection this week, I like the look of Kaoru Mitoma. The left winger has scored in five of his last seven games and is absolutely buzzing right now. With that team news so key, it’s interesting to see that the Japanese star has played every minute of Brighton’s FA Cup run thus far, scoring in the last round against Chelsea when the Seagulls fielded a full-strength side.
With a five-day gap since their league victory over Bournemouth, there is no reason to expect boss Fabian Hurzeler to change his approach for this tie. Newcastle have conceded 11 times in their last four games and have let in multiple goals in three of their last four at St James’ Park. Mitoma to score at 3.75 looks a bet.
FA Cup Best Bets: Bournemouth v Wolves
I considered Matheus Cunha in the goalscorer markets for this game. After all, he’s scored in four of his last five games and is clearly a step above his team-mates in terms of quality. A player who is likely to start for Brazil in the forthcoming World Cup qualifiers has been Wolves’ biggest threat for some time and I’m still going to back him, albeit in another market.
Cunha has been peppering the opposition goal with shots aplenty of late – he’s landed the 4+ shots bet in seven of his eight appearances since a suspension. He had a whopping eight in the last round against Blackburn. That’s a 2.1 chance here but preference is for 2+ shots on target which is offered at a bigger 2.45.
This has delivered in six of those eight games, including the meeting of these sides a fortnight ago, a game decided by Cunha’s goal (the only one on the day). Bournemouth have made plenty of changes in their FA Cup games thus far – Justin Kluivert and Django Ouattara were both benched at Everton – so Wolves may well fancy their chances against a side who have lost three of their last four in the league.
FA Cup Best Bets: Aston Villa v Cardiff
I’m going to play an extra props bet this week – this one gives me another chance to air my low-cards FA Cup theory. This competition tends to attract lower card counts than the Premier League or Championship, certainly in the early rounds – more than half of the ties across rounds three and four saw under 2.5 cards. Ten saw none at all.
The wide margins between the sides tend to help with leniency and while by this stage we’ve seen plenty of lower-division sides filtered out, here we still have Champions League chasers v Championship relegation candidates, both of whom sit in the middle of their respective fair-play tables. Throw in one of the most lenient Premier League referees in Peter Bankes and we have a cards angle.
Under 2.5 cards is at 2.1 – that’s landed in nine of Bankes’ last 11 FA Cup appointments – but the route I’m going down is under 0.5 first-half cards at 2.3. Focus in on Bankes’ FA Cup detail and you find he’s failed to show a first-half card in 11 of his last 13 FA Cup ties. OK, one bad challenge could see it all go wrong but those are strong numbers and worth following.
FA Cup Best Bets 2024/25: Fifth Round
Millwall to beat Crystal Palace @ 9.0 with kwiff
Kaoru Mitoma anytime scorer @ 3.75 with kwiff
M Cunha 2+ SOT v Bournemouth @ 2.45 with kwiff
Under 0.5 first-half bookings AVL/CAR @ 2.3 with kwiff
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