Team, goalscorer, player prop – football tipster Andy Schooler is back with his usual format, picking out his FA Cup best bets ahead of this weekend’s third-round ties.
FA Cup Best Bets: Andy Schooler’s Massive Round 3 Tips
FA Cup Best Bets: Leicester v QPR
Times have changed in the FA Cup and there has to be a decent chance that none of the teams involved in this weekend’s third round will pick the same XI they did for their previous match. Trying to second-guess who will play is a headache for punters but I reckon things could work in QPR backers’ favour here.
The visitors are flying having won six and lost only one of their last 10 games and it’s very much worth noting that boss Marti Cifuentes made only three changes on the same weekend last season when his side faced another Premier Lague club, Bournemouth, in a game they led 2-0 but ultimately lost 3-2. The Championship side should be able to trouble a Leicester one embroiled in a proper relegation battle.
They’ve now won just one of their last 13 games and, after some initial good signs under Ruud van Nistelrooy’s management, they’ve now lost five straight, conceding 14 goals in the process. With a massive league game against Crystal Palace to come on Wednesday, expect the new manager to rest several for this tie and QPR are good enough to capitalise.
FA Cup Best Bets: Nottingham Forest v Luton
For a tasty-priced goalscorer bet this week, I’m going to take a chance on Willy Boly starting this one. He’s not seen much action this season following the signing of Nikola Milenkovic but this looks an ideal chance for him to gain some game time. When he does play, Boly is a big set-piece threat and Forest, as highlighted in last week’s column, have been impressive from those situations this season.
Boly scored twice in 18 Premier League starts last season and is 8.5 to grab another in this game against the Championship strugglers, who this week parted company with boss Rob Edwards. The Hatters have conceded 10 times from set pieces this season – only three sides in the Championship have a worse record – and they are fifth when it comes to set piece expected goals against (SPxGA). In short, Boly is worth a punt here and if you really want to shoot for the stars, he’s on offer at 111 to score twice!
FA Cup Best Bets: Chelsea v Morecambe
For a smaller, more likely, goalscorer bet, back Marc Guiu to score first in this contest, one which pits Premier League high-fliers against the side who sit second bottom of the Football League. It’s a huge gulf in class, one which may well be reflected in the final scoreline.
Chelsea will doubtless ring the changes but the good news for them is that their ‘second XI’ has basically been playing on a regular basis this season in the Conference League. I doubt the team Enzo Maresca puts out will be disjointed. Guiu has been part of that set-up, scoring six times in the UEFA competition. The Spanish youngster has scored in four games for club and country this season and has netted the first goal in three of them. Back him in the same market here.
FA Cup Best Bets: Liverpool v Accrington
Card tallies in FA Cup ties are generally lower than their league counterparts and here we’ve got a pretty lenient referee in charge, Lewis Smith. He’s averaged just 3.09 cards per game in the Championship this season (and only a fraction more in his four Premier League matches), while a look at his FA Cup record shows he’s gone under 2.5 cards in five of seven ties. Three saw none at all.
In these wide-margin Cup ties, you often tend to find the referee going easy on the underdog, not wanting to ‘spoil their day’, while Liverpool games have become well known by punters for producing low card counts in recent years. Under 25.5 booking points is the suggestion here. It’s 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red, for those who aren’t used to the system.
FA Cup Best Bets 2024/25: 3rd Round Tips
QPR to beat Leicester @ 4.8 with kwiff
Willy Boly Anytime Scorer v QPR @ 8.5 with kwiff
Marc Guiu First Goalscorer Morecambe @ 3.7 with kwiff
Liverpool/Accrington Under 25.5 booking points @ 1.78 with kwiff
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