After Premier League winners at 3.9 and 3.1 on Saturday, Andy Schooler is back with his Champions League Best Bets ahead of Matchday 6. Read his exclusive preview each and every week with kwiff.
Champions League Best Bets: Matchday 6 Preview
Betting is, first and foremost, about pricing and the market for this contest doesn’t look right. Even money about the home win looks on the generous side and I think this is a case of a team being priced up too much on reputation. Yes, when the fixtures were revealed back in August, this game had the look of a potential final dress rehearsal but, on current form, Liverpool look anything but Champions League contenders.
Champions League Best Bets: Inter Milan v Liverpool
They’ve won just four of their last 15 now, losing nine of those, and defensively they are really struggling. Three of their last five Premier Lague games have seen them conceded 3+ goals, while last time out in this competition they were beaten 4-1 at home by PSV Eindhoven. And in Lautaro Martinez and Marcus Thuram, Inter have forwards who can really attack that fragile backline.
The Serie A side have won 14 of their last 17 games, including four out of five in the Champions League. Admittedly, one of Liverpool’s four wins in their horror run did come against Real Madrid, but it’s still very hard to be enthused by them at the moment. I’m surprised Inter aren’t odds-on to win this and will back them accordingly.
Champions League Best Bets: PSV v Atletico Madrid
Our cards bets in this column have done pretty well this season. They’ve predominantly been based on the card-happy referees and the appointment for this one is Englishman Michael Oliver. His card count in UEFA club competitions has been higher than his domestic rate for many years now and he’s shown 5+ cards in 36 of his last 70 in these European ties.
PSV and Atleti might not be at the top of the poor discipline lists but the league table suggests these should be highly competitive – both are on the fringes of the top eight and sit two and one point respectively outside those slots. In short, much to play for and history shows two closely matched teams are more likely to produce cards than two mis-matched ones.
Also, it doesn’t take much to get Diego Simeone’s Atleti wound up a bit and so if things do get a bit heated, they are more than capable of turning this into a real feisty battle. Over 4.5 cards is 1.98 and that’s fine by me.
Champions League Best Bets: B Dortmund v Bodo/Glimt
This season’s Champions League has been characterised by goal-laden games and this match on Wednesday night could be another. Dortmund’s five games so far in this competition have produced a whopping 28 goals, a total which makes Bodo’s 18 look small which, of course, it isn’t. In fact, it matches the competition average of 3.4 per game.
Both teams to score has landed in four of Dortmund’s five, the only ‘miss’ coming when Villarreal failed to find net, something explained to some extent by the fact the Spaniards played much of the contest with only 10 men. The Norwegians have also landed BTTS in four of five and have shown they are capable of causing problems, despite picking up only two points thus far.
Over 2.5 goals looks highly likely given this season’s data, while you would expect Dortmund to prevail – as the table shows, they are the better side and have home advantage. Dortmund to win, BTTS and over 2.5 goals turns the home victory from 1.22 shot to a 2.2 chance.
Champions League Best Bets 2025/26: Matchday 6 Tips
Inter Milan to beat Liverpool @ 2.0 with kwiff
Over 4.5 cards in PSV v Atletico @ 1.98 with kwiff
Dortmund to win, BTTS & over 2.5 goals @ 2.2 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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