The final round of group phase games takes place amongst Europe’s elite across Tuesday and Wednesday – Andy Schooler has his latest round of Champions League Best Bets exclusively for kwiff.
Champions League Bets Bets: January 27th 2026
It’s back to Qarabag for this week’s team selection – a side we’ve mentioned in this column already this season. The Azerbaijanis were supposed to be among the also-rans but they reach matchday eight with a real chance of progressing to the knockout stage, having beaten Benfica, Copenhagen and Frankfurt, as well as holding Chelsea to a 2-2 draw.
Champions League Best Bets: Liverpool v Qarabag
They head to Anfield knowing a win sees them qualify although, perhaps more importantly, a narrow loss may well be good enough given their current goal difference of -2. Crucially, they’ve got goals in them – of the current bottom 20 sides in the table, only PSV have scored more than Qarabag’s 13 – and given Liverpool’s recent defensive woes, they look capable of scoring here. Both teams to score looks a decent price at 2.05; that’s occurred in five of Qarabag’s seven UCL games thus far, as well as six of Liverpool’s last nine in all competitions. But I also think the visitors look big on the handicap market.
Liverpool know any win sees them progress straight to the last 16 and so if they do get 1-0 up, there’s little motivation to keep pouring forward; much more to see out the game. They also have Saturday’s big Premier League game with Newcastle to consider. Qarabag to cover, given a 2.5-goal start, looks worth an interest. Liverpool have only covered this handicap once at Anfield this season and that was against League One Barnsley in the FA Cup.
Champions League Best Bets: Ajax v Olympiacos
Ajax have been poor for much of the season but they reach their final game of the Champions League’s league phase still in with a chance of progressing to the knockout stage, albeit an outside one. They do so in their best form of the season. It’s just one defeat in 10 in all competitions for the Dutch giants, who claimed a confidence-boosting 2-1 win away to Villarreal last week. This is must-win for them. I was tempted by the hosts, who are the outsiders here, but instead I’m going to use them for my goalscorer pick.
With Olympiacos right on the cut-off line for the play-offs – they sit 24th, above Napoli on goals scored – there’s every chance this is a game where someone needs a goal throughout the entire 90 minutes, maybe both of them, and therefore it has the potential to open up. That’s where Ajax winger Mika Godts comes in. The young Belgian has scored in six of his last 16 appearances and is now the club’s joint top scorer. He loves a shot when cutting in and averages 2.07 per appearance this season – the best in the squad. Back him to score at any time at 3.5.
Champions League Best Bets: Arsenal v Kairat Almaty
This game has nothing riding on it – Arsenal will finish in the top two regardless (there’s no advantage for finishing top), while Kairat are already out. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean there is no betting angle. Arsenal will surely bring in a bunch of fringe players, who should be keen to make their mark.
One of those should be midfielder Christian Norgaard, who has had limited game-time since joining from Brentford in the summer. Notably, he was the player brought out for Tuesday’s press conference. A player who puts in plenty of tackles, the Dane has been booked in both UCL starts this season, while last term at Brentford he received 10 cards in 35 appearances.
Yes, Arsenal should dominate this whatever side they put out but as already pointed out, Norgaard loves a challenge, while if he plays in his usual defensive midfield role, he’ll be the man likely dealing with any breakaways which the visitors will doubtless seek to utilise. With referee Urs Schnyder having shown 92 cards in his 21 matches this season – and averaging four per game in his UEFA club appointments – I think the 5.8 on offer about Norgaard collecting another card is worth a try.
Champions League Best Bets: MD 8
BTTS in Liverpool v Qarabag @ 2.05 with kwiff
Qarabag (+2.5) to beat Liverpool @ 1.75 with kwiff
Godts anytime scorer @ 3.5 with kwiff
Norgaard to be carded @ 5.8 with kwiff
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