Andy Schooler previews Wednesday’s UEFA Conference League final between Crystal Palace and Rayo Vallecano.
UEFA Conference League Final 2026 Preview
Much was said about the Premier League’s strength last week after Aston Villa dismantled Freiburg in the Europa League final. The English clubs’ TV deal income dwarfs that of La Liga and we may well see that reflected again here. However, Rayo do at least arrive in good form having won six and drawn three of their last nine games in all competitions, although that run failed to secure them European football via their domestic league – they finished eighth, one place and one point off their target.
In contrast, Palace have failed to win since their semi-final success, albeit their league position (finished 15th) meant they had little to play for and boss Oliver Glanser has clearly had this game in mind for some time. He will be hoping key midfielder Adam Wharton will be fit after he limped off with an ankle problem at the weekend. Defender Chris Richards is considered more of a doubt. Rayo have a couple of concerns themselves but experienced attacker Isi Palazon is available despite serving a domestic ban.
Palace are odds-on to win in 90 minutes but if you do feel their extra quality will shine through, the value looks to be in backing them to win with both teams scoring. Palace, who are the top scorers in this competition, haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last eight games, while they conceded in five of their seven Conference League matches away from Selhurst Park. Rayo have scored in their last 10 and only failed to score only once in their 14 European games this season. Palace and BTTS pushes the price up to 3.9 which looks a lot more attractive.
UEFA Conference League Final 2026: Goalscorers
Ever since the semi-finals, there’s been one player I’ve liked the look to score in this game and that’s Ismaila Sarr. He’s hit top form during the latter stage of the season and arrives in Leipzig having scored 10 goals in his last 12 starts for Palace.
The Senegal international has netted in the Eagles’ last five Conference League games and looks to be a key man for them here. Using the ‘per game’ metric, he leads the way for his club this season in terms of shots taken and shots on target which helps underline his threat. Frankly, I was hoping for a bigger price but I make Sarr the most likely scorer in this game so will back him accordingly.
UEFA Conference League Final: Prop Bets
One market which caught the eye initially was total bookings with under 4.5 at 1.9. The reason for that was the choice of referee, Maurizio Mariani. He’s not one for dishing out many cards with seven of his nine UEFA club appointments this season having landed this bet. The problem is, these two teams have racked up plenty – no side has collected more cards in the Conference League than Rayo, who average exactly three per game. Palace are bang on two per match.
Throw in the potential for late time-wasting cards as one team tries to hang on for victory and I’ll opt out on this occasion. Player markets weren’t available at time of writing but Pathe Ciss should be among the ‘to be carded’ favourites. The Rayo man, who has moved from midfield to defence in the latter part of the campaign, has 12 cards from 32 starts this season. It may also be worth checking out Florian Lejeune’s shot prices. The defender has been one of the best defenders in Europe in terms of shot output for some time now.
This season, the former Newcastle centre-back has averaged 1.68 shots per 90 minutes and will be a threat on set plays. He also takes some direct free kicks and isn’t afraid to come forward and shoot from distance in open play. He’s had 2+ shots in six of his last eight games and could be an interesting price to repeat the trick against a Palace defence which has often struggled defending set pieces. Only three Premier League sides gave up more shots from such situations this season, while only Liverpool conceded more set-piece goals. For what it’s worth, Lejeune is 9.0 to score at any time.
UEFA Conference League Final 2026 Best Bets
Crystal Palace to win and BTTS @ 3.9 with kwiff
Ismaila Sarr anytime scorer @ 2.37 with kwiff
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