It’s a huge weekend in the Premier League with title rivals Manchester City and Arsenal meeting on Sunday. Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for matchday 33…
Premier League Best Bets: Andy’s MD33 Preview
City have been playing catch-up in the Premier League title race for some time now but they’ve long had a game in hand and also known this fixture gives them a chance to pull some ground back on Arsenal. While they themselves dropped some key points last month, in recent weeks all the stutters have come from the Gunners, who head into this game having won just one of their last five matches in all competitions.
Last weekend’s home defeat to Bournemouth really opened the door for City, who know if they win here and in midweek against Burnley, they will be top of the table come Wednesday night. There was always a chance that over-reliance on set-plays would eventually hurt Mikel Arteta’s side and in recent weeks that seems to have been the case, while things have also been less secure at the back.
Premier League Tips: Manchester City v Arsenal
This looks a good time to mention Arsenal have conceded in 11 of their last 15 games away from the Emirates Stadium, with one of those matches being the 2-0 defeat to City in the EFL Cup final last month. City dominated that day and you have to wonder how Arteta reacts to that. His default position has long been to go defensive in these big games – the early-season loss at Anfield, for example – and with Arsenal knowing a draw is a good result for them, it’s not hard to imagine a blanket approach again here.
However, I am unconvinced such tactics would work, with Arsenal performing well below the standards they set for themselves in the first half of the season. For those who have watched Arsenal stutter at this time of the season in recent years, it will come as no surprise. Match of the Day had the April stats up last weekend and they showed that since the ‘normal’ fixture calendar has returned (ie post-COVID), Arsenal have won only 11 of 26 games in this month, losing eight.
City, on the other hand, have won 21 of 24, losing just once. That is a remarkable difference and proves that City’s reputation as hardened ‘finishers’ is fully justified. Their latest April win was an impressive 3-0 success at Chelsea last week. Unlike Arsenal, they had no midweek fixture to deal with so head into this one fresher, focused and in form. It’s probably fair to say that 1.72 isn’t the greatest price in the world, but the hosts win this for me.
Premier League Tips: Chelsea v Man United
I was close to putting up United as my ‘team’ bet for this week and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing them here at 2.9. Yes, they lost 2-1 at home to Leeds on Monday and have now lost Lisandro Martinez to suspension for this one, but I’m still not convinced they should be firm outsiders in this one.
It’s not like they are facing a team on a good run here. Indeed, it’s the complete opposite. It’s now just one win in seven EPL game for Chelsea, who have lost five of their last six in all competitions. And the game they avoided defeat in was at home to the worst team in League One, Port Vale. They’ve conceded 15 goals in those five recent defeats and boss Liam Rosenior is under ever-growing pressure having so far failed to come up with solutions.
The Stamford Bridge crowd haven’t been too impressed by the new man and with Champions League football next season seemingly slipping away, they may not be too tolerant if things start badly here. United have already won at Arsenal and Liverpool this season but rather than backing them for victory – after all they have won just one of their last four matches – I believe it’s worth looking for a goalscorer bet with them here.
Step forward Casemiro, who has now found the net in three of his last four games, taking his tally for the season to eight. His form has had fans begging the club to persuade him to stay for one more than (the Brazilian announced in January he would leave at the end of the season).
A price of 4.75 to score won’t be for everyone but Casemiro is clearly finishing with a flourish and with Bruno Fernandes delivering excellent supply from both dead balls and open play, it’s not hard to envisage the midfielder getting on the end of some sort of cross at some point given his ability in the air. That’s if he doesn’t smash one in from the edge of the box.
Premier League Tips: Nott’ Forest v Burnley
Neco Williams is very much your modern-day full-back, a player who loves to surge forward and play his part in his side’s attacking output. He was a big eyecatcher at the City Ground last week when he scored Forest’s goal in their 1-1 draw with Aston Villa.
The Wales international managed four shots that afternoon, following on from recent two-shot games against Spurs and Fulham. Williams also hit three in the reverse fixture, while when Forest hosted Wolves – the only side below Burnley in the table – he struck no fewer than seven.
Here, he goes up against the league leaders in terms of shots conceded – Burnley’s total of 532 is 43 more than any other side – and in a game Forest badly need to win, I’d expect Williams to be a big threat. I’ll happily back him for 2+ shots – a bet that has landed in his last three starts (I am writing this prior to Forest’s Europa League game on Thursday which I don’t expect Williams to start). I will also ‘ladder’ this bet by also taking the 3+ option.
Premier League Matchday 33 Tips
Man City to win @ 1.72 with kwiff
Casemiro 1+ goal @ 4.75 with kwiff
Williams 2+ shots @ 1.72 with kwiff
Williams 3+ shots @ 2.85 with kwiff
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