Dave Massey is back with Cheltenham Tips ahead of Day 2 of this year’s festival on Champion Chase Day at Prestbury Park.
Cheltenham Tips: Dave Massey’s Huge Festival Fancies 2025
Almost goes against the grain tipping up a British horse for a Grade 1 Novices race at the Festival, but I do think The New Lion can finally put the Challow stat to bed (21 losers and counting) and win for the Skeltons.
Cheltenham Tips – The New Lion (1.20) NAP
I’d say this, regarding that Challow stat. Most of the time, the Challow is run in a bog at Newbury around Christmas time and by the time we get better ground in March, the form of it is almost useless as a guide. However, that’s not the case this season, with the Challow almost run on good ground, and as such I think the form is much more worthy. Six of the last ten winners of the Challow have been placed in this anyway, so it isn’t as if it’s not a pointer anyway, and The New Lion, who continues to impress us physically, has the gears, and the stamina, to win this.
Cheltenham Tips – Ballyburn (2.00) Take On
Can Ballyburn be beaten here? I suppose the first question to ask is whether you think he’ll stay three miles or not. Certainly he’s bred for it, but for a horse with so many gears it has to be of some concern. His best effort on the figures was when winning the Gallagher Novices Hurdle here last year (although you could argue the race has been overrated somewhat) and he came away very easily in the closing stages, and he wasn’t stopping when winning the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Novices Chase at Leopardstown last time.
The second question is whether his jumping will hold up, too; he made a howler two out at Kempton against Sir Gino and I’d say it was okay at Leopardstown but no more than that, Champ Kiely often taking a length out of him at his fences and he wasn’t the quickest away from fences at times either. At odds-on, I think he has to be taken on.
Cheltenham Tips – Vanillier (3.20) EW
Gavin Cromwell’s supposed second string, Vanillier is a perfectly good alternative to Stumptown. A class act on his day, second to Corach Rambler in the 2023 Grand National, he struggled for much of a season after that (the effort of that, plus a raised handicap mark, all proving too much for him) but looked much more like his old self when thrashing them over the Punchestown banks last time out, the application of blinkers perking him right up. If they work again, he’s on a nice racing weight and won’t mind whatever the ground throws at him. He’s arguably a couple of points too big at 8-1 and with four places on offer with most books, that’s a price that looks worth taking.
Cheltenham Tips – Lossiemouth (2.40) EW
Let’s have another each-way pick today, and at a price. Look no further than Lossiemouth (not that one, the other one), former Grade 2 winner for Tom Lacey who has come back from a long absence this season to run perfectly well for Polly Gundry in three competitive handicap hurdles, all around three miles. Now, I’m not totally convinced he stays that far, and this drop back in trip could be just what the doctor ordered. He shapes as if he retains most of his ability and a mark of 133 is fair, and reflects where we are with him at present. He’ll be ignored in the market, but it would be no surprise to me if he hit the frame here.
By Dave Massey
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