Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the US Open 2025 women’s singles title. Read hie exclusive preview for kwiff, ahead of a sensational fortnight of action from Flushing Meadows.
US Open 2025: Women’s Outright Preview
US Open 2025: Aryna Sabalenka (3.2)
World ranking (as of Aug 19): 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): W-RU-SF-SF-2R-2R-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2024 US Open & 2023, 2024 Australian Open
Hardcourt form: QF Cincinnati
Backers of Sabalenka tend to get a run for their money – she’s reached the semis at least in 12 of her last 15 Grand Slam appearances, including the last four US Opens. The Belarusian is the reigning champion in New York but it’s debatable whether or not she should be the favourite this time around.
Sabalenka hasn’t won a title since Madrid in May and her return to the hardcourts did not go particularly well in Cincinnati where she was below her best throughout and eventually was well beaten by Elena Rybakina in the last eight. Possesses huge power and is capable of beating all-comers but recent form suggests she may fall short this time around.
US Open 2025: Iga Swiatek (3.6)
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: QF-4R-W-4R-3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 6 times
Hardcourt form: W Cincinnati, L16 Montreal
I’m not sure too many would have put the Queen of Clay down to lose her French Open crown and then immediately bounce back by winning Wimbledon, but that’s exactly what’s happened in the past three months. Against the odds, the Pole ended a year-long title drought on the grass of SW19 and now has her sights set on more big prizes. Is a former champion in New York so knows how to win here and after claiming another title in Cincinnati, showed she’s ready to mount another serious challenge. Arguably the favourite, although the layers disagree.
US Open 2025: Coco Gauff (5.4)
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: 4R-W-QF-2R-1R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2023 US Open & 2025 French Open
Hardcourt form: QF Cincinnati, L16 Montreal
The 2023 champion claimed another Grand Slam title earlier this season at Roland Garros but since then, things haven’t clicked. The American lost in the first round of Wimbledon and has looked below her best on the hardcourt swing, losing to wild card surprise package Victoria Mboko in Montreal and Jasmine Paolini in Cincinnati. Double faults remain a real problem that undermine her game, while the forehand is always vulnerable. Given these flaws, it’s pretty remarkable that Gauff is still able to challenge and beat the best but I’m not going to be backing her at a fairly short price in New York.
US Open 2025: Mirra Andreeva (8.1)
World ranking: 5
Tournament history: 2R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Semi-finals, 2024 French Open
Hardcourt form: L32 Montreal
Won big hardcourt events in Indian Wells and Dubai earlier this season but the Russian arrives in New York under an injury cloud. Andreeva suffered a nasty tumble in Montreal where she hurt her ankle and subsequently withdrew from Cincinnati. As a result, she’s played just one match (and lost it) since Wimbledon. Andreeva is a tough competitor mentally but she has never been past the second round here and that combination of factors makes it very difficult to back her for glory.
US Open 2025: Elena Rybakina (9.4)
World ranking: 10
Tournament history: 2R-3R-1R-3R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 2022 Wimbledon
Hardcourt form: SF Cincinnati, SF Montreal, SF Washington
The Kazakh is yet to reach the second week of the US Open but current form suggests she has a great chance of doing so in 2025. Plenty of hardcourt matches have been won in the lead-in tournaments, although Rybakina has started to develop a reputation for losing tight matches. She was beaten in final-set tie-breaks in Montreal and Washington, and also went the same way against Aryna Sabalenka in Berlin having been edged out 7-5 in the third by Iga Swiatek at Roland Garros. With her big serve a major weapon in quick conditions, Rybakina took her revenge on Sabalenka in Cincinnati recently and has the potential to contend here.
US Open 2025: Best of the Rest
Jessica Pegula made the final of the US Open last year and some may want to chance here at 20.2. However, her form coming into this year’s event contrasts wildly to 12 months ago. Then, she has torn it up in the warm-up tournaments but now she arrives having gone just 2-3 across the hardcourt summer so far. She has the talent but backing her now requires a leap of faith.
Victoria Mboko will have plenty of eyes on her after her stunning title run in Montreal where she needed a wild card to get into the draw. However, the teenager is now just 18.4 to win this title on her tournament debut. Any value is surely gone. Australian Open champion Madison Keys (14.5) and Wimbledon finalist Amanda Anisimova (14.0) look short enough too but there could be some juice in Jasmine Paolini’s price of 32.0. She looked good in Cincinnati where she reached the final before losing to Swiatek and certainly should no longer be considered a claycourt specialist.
For bigger prices, consider Clara Tauson and Linda Noskova. Tauson (43.0) beat both Keys and Iga Swiatek en route to the semi-finals in Montreal and has now cracked the world’s top 20, delivering on the promise she showed as a junior when she topped the rankings. Noskova (59.0) is a longer shot but her hardcourt record throws up some interesting points.
In 2024, she stunned Swiatek at the Australian Open where she reached the quarter-finals. More recently, she’s gone 6-3 against top-20 players in the past 12 months on this surface with Pegula among her victims. Two of the defeats came in deciding sets against Swiatek. Essentially, if Noskova brings her ‘A’ game, she’s capable of competing in a field of this quality.
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