Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the women’s singles title at the 2026 US Open, which starts on Sunday.
Aryna Sabalenka
Odds: 3.4
World ranking (as of August 24): 1
Tournament history: W-W-RU-SF-SF-2R-2R-4R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
Hardcourt form: L16 Cincinnati, L16 Toronto
Punters face an age-old dilemma here – do you place most weight on recent form or historical trends? Sabalenka has looked well below her best in the recent warm-up events but at the hardcourt Grand Slams her consistency has been outstanding – she’s played in the last seven such finals, winning four of them. For the two-time defending champion, Flushing Meadows is her domain so perhaps a return to these Laykold courts will inspire again. Few possess the power in both serve and groundstrokes so if Sabalenka does find her best tennis, others better watch out. However, she looks on the short side to me at this moment in time.
Iga Swiatek
Odds: 5.0
World ranking: 8
Tournament history: QF-QF-4R-W-4R-3R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 6 times
Hardcourt form: SF Cincinnati, W Toronto
Second favourite Swiatek is the opposite to Sabalenka right now. She played well at the recent warm-up tournaments, winning in Toronto and only losing in the last four in Cincinnati to Jessica Pegula. However, she doesn’t have the same pedigree on the hardcourts – clay is her preferred surface – and has only been to the semis in New York once, although she did go on to capture the title on that occasion back in 2022. Certainly has the potential to emerge as the champion but history shows that she usually finds someone that big too good on this surface where she doesn’t get as much time to line up her penetrating groundstrokes, while her excellent retrieval skills are also weakened.
Coco Gauff
Odds: 5.8
World ranking: 4
Tournament history: 4R-4R-W-QF-2R-1R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, French Open 2025, US Open 2023
Hardcourt form: W Cincinnati, SF Toronto
Has looked good in the lead up to this tournament, winning the title in Cincinnati and making the semis in Toronto, where she lost to Elena Rybakina. Eight of her nine wins have come in straight sets and she’ll arrive confident of replicating her US Open success of 2023. The issues Gauff needs to overcome are widely known – double-faults still plague her game too often, while her forehand does have the ability to go awry. It did hold up in 2023 though and there is arguably no greater fighter on the tour right now. Looks to have a good chance.
Elena Rybakina
Odds: 6.55
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 4R-2R-3R-1R-3R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, Australian Open 2026 & Wimbledon 2022
Hardcourt form: QF Cincinnati, RU Toronto
This season’s Australian Open champion had looked in decent hardcourt form, beating the likes of Coco Gauff and Naomi Osaka en route to the Toronto final. However, she pulled up injured during her quarter-final in Cincinnati and her ankle/Achilles injury looked worrying ahead of this major. Rybakina spoke about not being able to push up on serve or even walk properly, while she also revealed the issue was a long-standing one. The latter comment is unlikely to surprise – the Kazakh has a long history of injury and illness problems which is always a concern for potential backers. Throw in a poor US Open record (never beyond the last 16) and Rybakina, despite her great serve, is easily swerved.
Jessica Pegula
Odds: 8.95
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: SF-RU-4R-QF-3R-3R-1R-1R-2R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, US Open 2024
Hardcourt form: RU Cincinnati, L16 Toronto, RU Washington
Having reached two finals already during the current hardcourt swing, will this finally be the tournament where Pegula breaks her Grand Slam duck? Possibly, but we’ve also seen the American do this in the past – impress in the smaller events only to fall a tad short in the one that matters most. On the plus side, this is her best Grand Slam – she made her only major final (so far) here in 2024 and returned to the semis last season, on each occasion being toppled by Aryna Sabalenka. It’s now 30 Grand Slam main-draw appearances without a title and, at the age of 32, time is being to run out for a player of great consistency – she’s spent more than 200 consecutive weeks as a top-10 player. Did beat Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova in Cincinnati recently so if the self-belief is really there, Pegula should at least contend.
Best of the rest
After reaching two Grand Slam finals in 2025, including here in New York, it’s not been the best of seasons for Amanda Anisimova (13.7).
However, those who follow the ‘class is permanent’ mantra should have had their interest piqued by the American’s recent displays in Cincinnati where there were encouraging signs.
She beat Alex Eala and Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, her serve particularly brutal in the latter clash, before losing 7-6 in the decider to Jessica Pegula.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see her kick on from there and launch another title bid.
As a two-time champion, Naomi Osaka (8.95) warrants respect.
You could be forgiven for remembering her primarily for her extravagant entrances in dresses of all shapes and sizes but 2026 has arguably been her most consistent campaign on the court since she became a mother.
She reached the semis here 12 months ago and last month defeated world number one Aryna Sabalenka at Wimbledon.
My issue with Osaka is she seems often to be priced up on her pre-pregnancy form and she looks short enough for me.
One player certainly not being chalked up based on her past is Alexandra Eala (16.9).
She’s the WTA Tour’s brightest star right now with crowds flocking to see her wherever she goes.
Those fans always include a big number of Filipinos, who arrive to cheer on their heroine in enthusiastic fashion. In a city as eclectic as New York, the atmosphere at her matches over the next fortnight is bound to be something to savour.
Arguably the hype had been overblown until recently but Eala arrives here having won her maiden WTA title in Washington, where Pegula, Oaska and Elina Svitolina were all defeated.
If will be hard to live up to huge expectations but the 21-year-old appears a well-grounded person, taking everything in her stride.
She’ll be a story in New York, of that there is no doubt. Whether she contends for the title remains to be seen but the talent looks to be there.
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