Andy Schooler takes a statistical look at the main contenders for the men’s battle for US Open 2025 glory at Flushing Meadows. Read his in-depth preview, exclusively for kwiff.
US Open 2025: Men’s Outright Preview
US Open 2025: Jannik Sinner (1.78)
World ranking (as of Aug 19): 1
Tournament history (most recent 1st): W-4R-QF-4R-1R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 4 times
Hardcourt form: RU Cincinnati
The reigning champion has already won two Grand Slam titles this season – the Australian Open and Wimbledon – and missed out on the other from championship points up. There are few weaknesses in Sinner’s game and he has been hugely consistent over the past 24 months – since leaving the US Open in 2023, the Italian has gone 124-12.
Six of those losses have come at the hands of his main rival Carlos Alcaraz, their most recent clash ending prematurely in Cincinnati the other day due to Sinner’s illness. That’s an obvious concern for punters but assuming he’ll recover in time for his title defence, it would take a brave man to oppose Sinner.
US Open 2025: Carlos Alcaraz (2.2)
World ranking: 2
Tournament history: 2R-SF-W-QF
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 5 times
Hardcourt form: W Cincinnati
Alcaraz has happy memories of the US Open as it was here that he made his big breakthrough in 2021, reaching the last eight, before capturing the title a year later and becoming the youngest-ever world number one in the process. A tremendous shotmaker, the Spaniard will feel at home on the Laykold courts. Has a proven ability for winning matches when not at his best but the fact he needs that skill perhaps tells its own story. Arguably lacks the consistency of main rival Sinner, hence his position in the market.
US Open 2025: Novak Djokovic (8.05)
World ranking: 7
Tournament history: 3R-W-RU-4R-4R-W-RU-W-SF-RU-RU-W-RU-SF-SF-RU-3R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Winner, 24 times
Hardcourt form: None
Hasn’t played since Wimbledon so it’s hard to know what shape Djokovic’s 38-year-old body is going to be in come New York where the heat and humidity can be brutal. What we do know is that Djokovic only really cares about the Grand Slam events these days and he’s managed to deliver pretty strong results – three semi-finals this season so far.
However, injury caught up with him in Melbourne, while Jannik Sinner proved too good in Paris and at Wimbledon. That probably sums up where Djokovic is these days – still a very good player but one just shy of being able to beat the very best. Has ‘only’ won here four times in 18 visits and it’s hard to envisage a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title arriving in a couple of weeks’ time.
US Open 2025: Alexander Zverev (11.5)
World ranking: 3
Tournament history: QF-QF-SF-RU-4R-3R-2R-2R-1R
Best Grand Slam performance: Runner-up, 3 times
Hardcourt form: SF Cincinnati, SF Toronto
Zverev has been a consistent performer here in recent years and may still be wondering how he didn’t win the 2020 final when he blew a two-set lead against Dominic Thiem. The German also made the Australian Open final on a hardcourt earlier this season but remains without a Grand Slam title. Looked good in Cincinnati in the lead up to this event only for illness to ruin any hopes he had of improving his already-strong record against Carlos Alcaraz.
That now stands at 6-6 although Zverev’s positive head-to-head against Jannik Sinner remains. Likes a fairly quick hardcourt so looks a lively contender but many have questioned his true belief following a series of disappointing displays in the biggest matches.
US Open 2025 Preview: Jack Draper (12.7)
World ranking: 5
Tournament history: SF-4R-3R
Best Grand Slam performance: Semi-final, 2024 US Open
Hardcourt form: None
Returns to the scene of his memorable semi-final run of 12 months ago when his serve and crunching forehand swept aside many a good player. The British star has since won at Masters 1000 level in Indian Wells and climbed as high as fourth in the world rankings. However, after an early Wimbledon exit, Draper revealed a left-arm injury would rule him out of both Toronto and Cincinnati so he’s coming into this tournament cold. Throw in the added pressure of big ranking points to defend and it’s hard to be confident about Draper at the price.
US Open 2025: Best of the Rest
An American hasn’t won the men’s title at the US Open since 2003 when Andy Roddick triumphed. However, Taylor Fritz (20.9) made the final last year and the host nation certainly has chances again. Fritz himself will be hopeful of a repeat but post-Wimbledon results haven’t been great with the Toronto semis his best effort, while there was a shock defeat to qualifier Terence Atmane in Cincinnati.
Ben Shelton (17.2) looks in better form. The big-serving star has gone 12-2 on hardcourts this summer, capturing the biggest title of his career at the Canadian Masters in Toronto. Shelton made the semis here two years ago and another deep run looks on the cards. At a bigger price, you may want to use ‘course form’ to back Frances Tiafoe at 56.0.
His last three visits to Flushing Meadows have brought one quarter-final and two semi-final appearances. Tiafoe has spoken about how the intense atmosphere and crowd support in New York brings out the best in him but he’ll need that to be the case. While he has won a few matches in the warm-up tournaments, he’ll have been disappointed to have only gone 6-3 in recent weeks.
Arguably a better bet at this stage is Karen Khachanov at 81.0. The Russian famously lost to Dan Evans from a seemingly unbeatable position in this tournament’s longest-ever match last year but he’s also a former semi-finalist – and one in good form. After reaching the last eight at Wimbledon, Khachanov has backed things up by making the final in Toronto where he defeated Alex Zverev in the last four. After a hectic few weeks, he finally ran out of gas in Cincinnati but if he’s able to replicate that level in New York, he could go well at a tasty price.
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