Andy Schooler landed two winners from three ATP match bets last week and is back with more top tennis weeks for kwiff. Here are his R1 picks for this week’s events in Beijing and Tokyo.
Andy Schooler’s ATP Beijing and Tokyo Tennis Tips
Maybe backing Nishikori here is a bet with the heart and not the head – the former world number four is playing one last time in his homeland before impending retirement. But there are certainly reasons to believe that Tiafoe could be vulnerable. The American recently made the semi-finals of the US Open but he’s often delivered his best tennis in the States – and struggled to replicate it elsewhere.
Top Tennis Tips: Kei Nishikori v Frances Tiafoe (Thu)
Take this part of the season, the Asian swing. While Tiafoe did make the final here in Tokyo is 2022, he’s since lost six of the seven matches he’s played in this section of the season. And prior to his deep run of four years ago, he’d gone 3-6 on the main tour on the Asian swing. I’m not surprised by those stats and blame it largely on the fact that this part of the campaign comes straight after the highs of playing the North American hardcourt season, including that electric US Open; Tiafoe inevitably arrives here on something of a downer. While not convinced Nishikori has what it takes anymore to win a match like this, I am convinced he’ll give it a good go and it’s is certainly interesting to know he’s won the pair’s only previous meeting.
However, it is now five years since he beat a top-10 player, although that did come right here at the Ariake Coliseum during the Olympic Games when he defeated Andrey Rublev. Injury issues have dominated his career since and this will be one last roll of the dice. Nishikori to win a set is 2.1 which I did consider but I think if we are backing that, we might as well go the whole hog. After all, Nishikori holds one of the best deciding-set records in the history of the game (well above 70%). Small stakes only.
Top Tennis Tips: Fokina v Berrettini (Thu)
Davidovich Fokina won the Chengdu title on Tuesday and I was certainly surprised by his performance there given he arrived in China having not played for two months due to back issues. He is now due to head to Tokyo, which will have different conditions to those found at altitude in central China. You have to wonder whether there will be fatigue issues for the Spaniard and also whether he’ll want to avoid aggravating that back problem. Indeed, I would not be surprised if he withdrew from this contest.
However, if he does show up then Berrettini will be capable of taking advantage. The DecoTurf courts are fairly quick in the Japanese capital which will suit the Italian’s big-hitting, big-serving game. Unlike his opponent, Berrettini has been in Tokyo for several days practising and should be in tune with conditions and I think he’s worth a bet at odds-against.
Top Tennis Tips: Nakashima v Humbert (Thu)
Humbert plays his best tennis indoors but if there are outdoor conditions well suited to his attacking game, then Tokyo is certainly among them. It’s pretty slick by modern-day standards here and that should allow Humbert to come forward, as is his wont. It certainly worked out for him in 2024 when he reached the final. Admittedly, Nakashima won’t mind conditions either – his serve is his key weapon with his return game a relative weakness – but that means I can see a serve-dominated affair which could easily be decided by just a handful of points.
There were three tie-breaks when these two met at Wimbledon in 2024, a match won by Humbert. The Frenchman actually leads the head-to-head 3-0, including right here two years ago when he crushed Nakashima 6-3 6-2. I know the American has played the better tennis over the past few months but Humbert looks a pretty big price at 2.7 to me.
ATP Beijing & Tokyo: Top Tennis Tips
Nishikori to beat Tiafoe @ 3.9 with kwiff
Berrettini to beat Davidovich Fokina @ 2.05 with kwiff
Humbert to beat Nakashima @ 2.7 with kwiff
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