In his latest exclusive Futureproof column, betting expert Andy Schooler looks ahead to the upcoming indoor season, which starts this week.
Andy Schooler’s Futureproof: Tennis Indoor Season 2024
It’s time for the 2024 ATP Tour to move indoors as its heads towards it conclusion. Let’s take a look at this particular time of the season with a betting perspective in mind…
Tennis Indoor Season 2024: Conditions
It used to be the case that indoor tennis meant quick conditions in which the serve-volleyers thrived – Boris Becker was a master of indoor tennis.
However, these days the hardcourts used at this time of year can vary wildly in speed with the ATP Finals in Turin arguably offering the fastest conditions of the season in recent years, whereas Basel and Vienna are relatively sluggish. Basically, a bit of research about the surface and balls being used always helps.
Tennis Indoor Season 2024: Motivation levels
After a long, hard campaign, we’re at a time of year where motivation can be on the wane with certain players. Others, however, still have goals in mind. Towards the top of the rankings, some of the world’s best are still chasing a place in those ATP Finals, which will feature only the best eight players of the season.
The likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have already qualified but several places remain up for grabs and the likes of Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev will bid to hold onto the spots they currently occupy, while others, including Alex de Minaur and Grigor Dimitrov, are still looking to force their way in. In short, those involved in the ‘Race to Turin’ should be pushing hard in the coming weeks.
Further down the rankings, those around the 25-40 mark know they could secure a seeding at the Australian Open with a good run over the next month. That would, in theory, provide an easier path through the draw – and the potential for big prize money. Matteo Berrettini is one such player. Currently 38th in the calendar-year ranking list, he has the skillset to perform well in the coming weeks and push into that top 32.
Tennis Indoor Season 2024: Specialists
As with playing on grass or clay, indoor conditions also throw up players who thrive in them. It’s hardly surprising given he’s world number one, but Jannik Sinner has the best indoor record over the past 52 weeks, going 18-1 indoors. Punters want players who may slip under the radar though and so it’s worth noting the three-way tie for second place in that ‘indoor wins’ list and they are Felix Auger-Aliassime, Ugo Humbert and the aforementioned Dimitrov.
FAA tore up the indoor circuit two years ago, winning three autumn titles in as many weeks. All five of his ATP tournament wins have come indoors and he’ll be the two-time defending champion in Basel next week. Three of Humbert’s six titles have come under a roof – he won in Metz in this period last season – while Dimitrov is a three-time finalist in Stockholm, where he plays this week.
Tennis Indoor Season 2024: Who to Oppose
Where there are players who love certain conditions, there are also those who hate them and one star who has really struggled indoors is Lorenzo Musetti. The world number 18 has gone 1-6 indoors over the past year which is a little surprising given his talent.
Tennis Indoor Season 2024: Review
A quick look back at those players mentioned in my last column which previewed the Asian swing:
Andrey Rublev – failed to back up his strong record in Asi,a although to be fair, he revealed a health scare shortly after my column was published, saying he had almost lost a limb during post-US Open surgery.
Brandon Nakashima – The American with Asian family heritage justified my faith to some extent, making the semis in Hangzhou.
Learner Tien – As suggested, he didn’t make it to Asia but continued to tear it up on the Challenger Tour in the US, winning another title at the weekend. Remains one to watch.
Frances Tiafoe – The predicted post-US Open slump arrived, ‘Big Foe’ going just 1-2 in Asia and ending his trip with a foul-mouthed tirade against an umpire.
Marin Cilic – Frankly he embarrassed me. Returning to the main tour after months away, I suggested Cilic, who had fallen to 777th in the rankings, was a fade. He duly won in Hangzhou, becoming the lowest-ranked player ever to win an ATP title!
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