Andy Schooler’s tennis best bets column returns every Monday in 2026 – he’s picked out three underdogs for the first-round action in Brisbane and Hong Kong.
Tennis Best Bets: Andy Schooler’s Round 1 Tips
Regular readers will know Collignon is one of my ‘five to follow’ on the ATP Tour in 2026 and he is more than capable of getting his season off to a flying start. I say off. He’s already played two matches in Brisbane in qualifying, winning both in straight sets and racking up some impressive numbers. His serve was firing against Ethan Quinn on Sunday when he faced (and saved) just one break point.
Tennis Best Bets: Denis Shapovalov v Raphael Collignon
Collignon appears to have picked up where he left off in 2025. The second half of last season saw the Belgian beat top-20 stars Casper Ruud, Alex de Minaur – here in Australia in Davis Cup – and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Shapovalov is far from a fast starter. Notably, he’s lost his opening match in four of the last five seasons and if he doesn’t start well here, Collignon should have the match sharpness and confidence to make the Canadian pay.
Tennis Best Bets: Rinky Hijikata v Adam Walton
Two Aussies face off in round one of the Brisbane International on Tuesday and, at the prices, Walton looks to have potential. He’s won the two previous meetings between the pair, both of which came on outdoor hardcourts. Admittedly, Walton didn’t end 2025 well but the off-season should have provided a reset and this looks a great venue for him to start at given he’s born and bred in Brisbane and has regularly practised at the Queensland Tennis Centre.
Hijikata came through qualifying, although he only actually won one match, with Matteo Arnaldi withdrawing and handing him a walkover on Sunday. That means he’ll have had two days off prior to this one. That victory over Filip Misolic actually highlighted a Hijikata weakness – he won just 38% of points behind his second serve and that’s an area where Walton can profit.
Tennis Best Bets: Alex Muller v Miomir Kecmanovic
Muller is the defending champion in Hong Kong but he’s a firm outsider for his opening match of 2026 and that price looks rather out of sync. The Frenchman leads the head-to-head 2-1 and has actually won both meetings on outdoor hardcourts, including one at this very tournament 12 months ago when he edged to victory in a final-set tie-break. Muller also claimed a tight win at the Canadian Masters and it’s hard to be too confident about the enigmatic Kecmanovic at around the 1.5 mark.
He lost eight of his last 13 matches of 2025 and while Muller wasn’t any better, he did end the year with a quarter-final run in Athens where he showed his propensity for quick conditions – recent editions of this event have played faster than your average hardcourt. With points to defend, Muller will be well aware of the need to make a fast start and should bring confidence after his major breakthrough here in 2025. Essentially, I’m not at all sure there should be such a gap in price between these two and will back Muller accordingly.
Tennis Best Bets: ATP Brisbane & Hong Kong
Collignon to beat Shapovalov @ 2.15 with kwiff
Walton to beat Hijikata @ 2.0 with kwiff
Muller to beat Kecmanovic @ 2.15 with kwiff
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