Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for the first-round matches at this week’s ATP BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Read for his exclusive tips tennis, cricket and Premier League football tips each and, every week with kwiff.
ATP Indian Wells Tennis Tips, March 4th 2026
I like Bellucci in this one against a out-of-sorts Diallo. The Canadian has won only one of his last seven matches and that was against world number 292 Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida in a final-set tie-break.He’s really struggled on return, breaking his opponent’s serve only 9% of the time so far this season.
Indian Wells Tips: Mattia Bellucci v Gabriel Diallo
With his normally strong serve likely to be blunted somewhat by the traditionally sluggish conditions in Indian Wells, and he could struggle again here. Bellucci has hardly been pulling up trees either in 2026 but he did make the last eight in Acapulco last week, beating top-20 star Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the process. He also leads the pair’s head-to-head record 3-1. Frankly, I’m surprised Bellucci is the underdog here and will back him accordingly.
Indian Wells Tips: Matteo Berrettini v Adrian Mannarino
Mannarino may be worth an interest on the handicap here. He’s dominated the two previous meetings these two have played, winning both in straight sets. Notably, Mannarino wasn’t broken in those matches and actually faced just a single break point. Now, both of those matches were played in conditions set to be quicker than those found in Indian Wells, although a takeaway from qualifying was the higher number of aces than in recent years, suggesting the Laykold courts – now in their second season – could be playing quicker.
Regardless of exactly how fast or slow conditions are, that match-up has clearly made things a bit awkward for Berrettini, who arrives here off a disappointing Golden Swing of clay events in South American. While he was there, Mannarino rediscovered his form by making the final in Montpellier, while he also gave Ben Shelton a thorough test in Dallas. Berrettini looks very short at 1.36 here. Throw in the problems the Mannarino serve has given the Italian in the past and backing the French star on the game handicap looks a good play, given he’s getting a 3.5 start.
Indian Wells Tips: Jacob Fearnley v Damir Dzumhur
I mentioned Dzumhur in last week’s preview for his propensity for a slow hardcourt. He didn’t manage to deliver a win on that occasion, losing a close match with Gael Monfils, but I’m prepared to side with him again this week as an underdog.
The Bosnian easily beat Fearnley in Athens at the end of last season, winning 6-4 6-2, and slower conditions here should only enhance his chances. Fearnley’s form has been poor so far in 2026. The Briton has failed to win any of his three matches against top-100 players – a fourth successive defeat could well follow here.
ATP Indian Wells 2026: R1 Best Bets
Bellucci to beat Diallo @ 1.96 with kwiff
Mannarino (+3.5) to beat Berrettini @ 1.78 with kwiff
Dzumhur to beat Fearnley @ 2.1 with kwiff
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