ATP HSBC Championships 2025
Andy Schooler landed three winners from three bets last week. Here are his top tips for Tuesday’s first-round matches at Queen’s Club.
HSBC Championships: Alexei Popyrin v Aleksandar Vukic
An underdog worth a try on Tuesday’s coupon is Vukic.
He’s admittedly struggled for wins in 2025 and has a lost a series of tight matches in a deciding set.
However, I felt that the change of surface could lead to a change in fortune and that he might have done something in Den Bosch last week.
He actually lost in round one but that defeat came against the eventual champion, Gabriel Diallo, a match which featured just one break of serve.
The reason for my confidence was Vukic played very well on grass last season, going 8-4 on the surface. He made the semis in Eastbourne and had quarter-final runs in both Den Bosch and Newport, all of which helped him compile hold/break percentages of 87-19 on grass in 2024.
That big serve helped Vukic qualify for this event – he held serve throughout his two qualifying matches – and it can at the very least keep him competitive against his fellow Australian.
He’s already been cut but I still think he’s worth backing for the win against a player who holds a losing 11-14 record so far in 2025.
HSBC Championships: Carlos Alcaraz v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
This will be the third meeting of this pair with both of the first two being won in straight sets by Alcaraz.
Yet both were close affairs, each finishing with a 7-6 6-4 scoreline on Alcaraz’s favourite surface, clay.
While it’s obvious that the reigning Wimbledon champion is also the better grasscourt player, Davidovich Fokina did manage to reach the quarter-finals here in 2022 when he played some good tennis, including beating Alex de Minaur.
With this being Alcaraz’s first match on the surface this season, he could be a little rusty and I doubt he’ll have done a great deal of practice given he was playing in a five-hour French Open final only last weekend.
Notably, both previous matches have featured a first-set tie-break and if we get another breaker in this match, it’s almost certain that the match will go over the total-games line of 19.5.
However, a better bet may be to side with Davidovich Fokina on the game handicap, in which he gets a 5.5-game start.
Alcaraz has often started the grass season rather slowly – twice taken to five sets in Wimbledon first-round matches, while his title tun here two years ago began with a hard-fought victory over Arthur Rinderknech which went to a final-set tie-break.
All of those matches would have landed the overs bet on this line, as would the two previous contests between the duo.
ATP Queen’s Club & Halle 2025: R1 Best Bets
-Vukic to beat Popyrin @ 2.62
-Davidovich Fokina (+5.5) to beat Alcaraz on the game handicap @ 1.8
By Andy Schooler
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