Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for the first round of this week’s ATP tournament in Hamburg, with expert tennis tips for the Boss Open 2025.
Expert Tennis Tips: R1 Best Bets
Tennis Tips: Arnaldi v Struff (Mon)
Struff has already been backed in but should he really be the underdog in this match? He is certainly lacking wins of late but my thinking is all about the surface. The slick grass here is very much in Struff’s favour – the big, flat hitter made the final here just two years ago and also reached the semis in 2019. There’s also a bit of altitude to help his strong serve.
In contrast, this will be only be Arnaldi’s fifth tour-level match on the surface – and he’s lost three of the first four. Struff is also playing on home soil so motivation won’t be an issue. I reckon he’s been looking forward to the move onto the grass – and this specific tournament – for a while now and can see him prevailing here.
Tennis Tips: Shapovalov v Rinderknech (Tue)
For an odds-against chance this week, let’s try Rinderknech. The Frenchman has a strong first serve, capable of doing some damage on the grass, especially the fresh grass which we should still have on Tuesday. It certainly caused Shapovalov problems when they met on this surface in 2022 at Wimbledon – that match went the Canadian’s way in a fifth set. However, Rinderknech does have a previous win over the left-hander, who, following a strong start to the season, has won only four of his last 12 matches.
The layers suggest the surface switch will help Shapovalov return to winning ways but I’m not sure Rinderknech will simply be rolling over here. He’s beaten former Halle champion Ugo Humbert on grass in the past and has also been the quarter-finals in Mallorca. OK, Shapovalov, a former Wimbledon semi-finalist, still has the better grasscourt credentials but with confidence low after that poor run, I think he’s worth taking on.
Tennis Tips: Virtanen v Etcheverry (Tue)
Virtanen arrives in the Netherlands as the first champion of the grasscourt season – he won the Challenger Tour event in Birmingham on Sunday. The Finn served 73 aces in five matches en route to that title and with his serve in good working order, this could be another tough assignment for Etcheverry. The Argentine has endured a tough 2025 season – he is just 14-18 so far this term. And it’s doubtful that the grass will provide a safer haven for him.
Etcheverry is just 3-8 lifetime on the surface and when you apply the tour-level filter, that becomes 2-6 with both of his victories coming against claycourters, namely Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Luca Nardi. While Etcheverry won the pair’s only previous meeting at the 2023 US Open, he did so 7-6 in the fifth. On a more preferable surface for Virtanen, at a time when he’s bang in form, this one should go the other way.
ATP Stuttgart & Den Bosch 2025 Tennis Tips
Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Matteo Arnaldi @ 1.92 with kwiff
Arthur Rinderknech to beat Denis Shapovalov @ 2.55 with kwiff
Otto Virtanen to beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry @ 1.56 with kwiff
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