Tennis expert Andy Schooler is back with three underdog bets for the first round of the Rome Masters 2025 – matches to be played on Wednesday and Thursday. Read below for his expert tips and analysis.
ATP Rome Masters 2025: Andy Schooler’s Round 1 Tips
Rome Masters 2025: Gabriel Diallo v Marcos Giron
Diallo enjoyed a memorable run in Madrid last week as a lucky loser. Handed a main-draw spot despite losing in qualifying, the big-serving Canadian made the most of the quicker conditions of Madrid’s altitude, beating the likes of Grigor Dimitrov en route to the last eight. However, he won’t get the same level of assistance from the climate here, back down at sea level, and the slower conditions have to give Giron a decent chance.
Like most Americans, Giron prefers a hardcourt (although the same can be said of Diallo), while he has beaten Learner Tien and Denis Shapovalov since arriving on the European clay. Madrid was the first time this season that Diallo had won back-to-back matches on the main tour and I just think too much weight is being placed on that effort in what are unique claycourt conditions for Europe. Had this match been played out in Barcelona a few weeks ago, Giron might even have been priced up as the favourite. He’s the value here.
Rome Masters 2025: Mattia Bellucci v Pedro Martinez
If you are the sort of punter who likes to side with the home hopes, this match is for you. Martinez has been chalked up as the favourite but since reaching the semis in Buenos Aires in February, he’s won just three of his 14 ATP matches. The last three in a row have been straight-sets defeats.
Admittedly, Bellucci is also struggling for form right now but he has beaten Cam Norrie in Monte Carlo on the clay and also made the last eight in Marrakech last month. Back in his homeland with plenty of crowd support, probably on one of the small outside courts, Bellucci can win this as the underdog.
Rome Masters 2025: Fabian Marozsan v Joao Fonseca
Has Fonseca hit something of a bump in the road? Since winning the title in Buenos Aires, the teenage Brazilian, of which great things have been predicted, has gone 1-3 on clay. Last week he was beaten by Jesper de Jong in the ‘second division’ Challenger Tour event in Estoril. He continues to be priced up as short-odds favourite but Marozsan looks more than capable of causing the youngster problems.
The Hungarian has fond memories of Rome, having stunned Carlos Alcaraz here in what was arguably the biggest upset of the 2023 season. This year, he’s already been to the semi-finals on the clay of Marrakech and I don’t think another shock is beyond the realms of possibility.
ATP Rome Masters 2025: R1 Best Bets
Giron to beat Diallo @ 2.3 with kwiff
Bellucci to beat Martinez @ 2.1 with kwiff
Marozsan to beat Fonseca @ 2.65 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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