Andy Schooler picks out his best bets for the first round of this week’s ATP Rolex Shanghai Masters – read on for his latest fancies, exclusively for kwiff.
ATP Shanghai Masters 2025: Round 1 Best Bets
I feel that both current form and head-to-head record point towards Fucsovics here and I’m surprised he’s not shorter. The Hungarian won the title in Winston-Salem just before the US Open and while that effort probably contributed to an early loss in New York, he was back winning matches in Tokyo last week, winning twice in qualifying and then defeating seed Frances Tiafoe.
ATP Shanghai Masters: Munar v Fucsovics
At the same time, Munar was losing heavily to Matteo Berrettini, a player short on match practice. Admittedly, he did make the last 16 of the US Open – a run which ended with a miserable defeat to Lorenzo Musetti when he won just four games. However, aside from that run, there’s not been a lot to get excited about for the Spaniard and he’ll also likely find the slick conditions of Shanghai’s DecoTurf courts a little on the fast side for his liking. Fucsovics has won both of their previous meetings in straight sets, including in Winston-Salem just over a month ago, and I take him to notch another victory in this one.
ATP Shanghai Masters: Mannarino v Berrettini
Both of these players will welcome what are usually some of the fastest courts on the ATP Tour but it’s Mannarino I like in this one. Berrettini is still in the early stages of yet another comeback from injury and he’s gone just 1-2 during the first two weeks of the Asian swing – his only matches since a first-round loss at Wimbledon. Rusty is the word. In contrast, Mannarino has been racking up wins and he’s very much match sharp right now.
As mentioned on these pages before, the best results of his career have usually come on the faster surfaces and he helped back up that theory with runs to the last 16 in Cincinnati and New York during the summer hardcourt swing. Last week in Beijing he beat the in-form Alexander Bublik after coming through qualifying. For what it’s worth, he also won the pair’s only previous match in straight sets, although that was several years ago now. Essentially, I’m happy to back a player in good form against one still scratching around to find anything like his best, especially when our man is the underdog.
ATP Shanghai Masters: Kovacevic v Shang
For something bigger, try siding with Kovacevic. It looks to me like too much weight has been placed on home advantage here with the Chinese too short at 1.36. While I’m sure Shang’s motivation levels are higher, the fact is he’s not played a great deal this season following a six-month injury lay-off. Indeed, he’s gone just 1-5 since returning to the tour. Last week he won the first set 6-0 against Arthur Cazaux but still lost the match, which is exactly the sort of thing that can happen when you are short on fitness and aren’t match tight.
The issue here is that Kovaevic’s recent record is just as bad – he’s won only one of his last eight. However, several of those matches have been tight affairs – he was two points away from beating eventual finalist Valentin Royer in Hangzhou recently – so perhaps going up against a player who isn’t at his sharpness is just what’s needed. While Shang is the right favourite, the price gap looks too wide and a small bet on the outsider here is the advice.
ATP Shanghai Masters 2025: R1 Best Bets
Fucsovics to beat Munar @ 1.7 with kwiff
Mannarino to beat Berrettini @ 2.05 with kwiff
Kovacevic to beat Shang @ 2.7 with kwiff
By Andy Schooler
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