ATP Paris Masters tips 2026: Andy Schooler’s best bets

Andy Schooler’s weekly ATP tennis column is back with three first-round betting tips for the Paris Masters, including two underdog selections.

Odds correct at the time of writing but subject to change.

ATP Paris Masters betting tips

Casper Ruud v Juan Manuel Cerundolo (Monday)

While opposing Francisco Cerundolo in Paris, I’m going to take a chance on his brother.

Juan Manuel has come through qualifying over the weekend so is already bedded into the conditions at La Défense Arena. He seemed to enjoy them too, slamming down 30 aces in beating Miomir Kecmanovic and Aleksandar Kovacevic. Both were good wins for the Argentine on a hard court.

Having found something of a groove, I suspect he’ll be pushing to stay in it as long as possible.

I am not sure, however, if Ruud will be busting a gut.

Indoor hard courts aren’t his favourite and we’ve seen how his attitude hasn’t always been the greatest when conditions don’t suit – he’s regularly been dismissive of the grass-court season.

Ruud has often had the ATP Finals to prolong his season but that’s not the case this year and he could be forgiven for eyeing up the next holiday flight.

His record in Paris is pretty awful – three wins and seven losses – and he’s now lost his last four at this event.

Last week, the Norwegian was beaten by Nuno Borges in Basel and if he can lose that one, he can lose this too.

Ruud has actually lost two of his three previous meetings with Cerundolo so backing the underdog here at close to 3.0 has plenty of potential.

Brandon Nakashima v Matteo Berrettini (Tuesday)

We successfully opposed Nakashima in this column last week when Tallon Griekspoor delivered us a winner at a nice price.

I’m tempted to repeat the trick here with the Italian the underdog in this match-up. He played well in Vienna last week in sluggish conditions, reaching the quarter-finals.

He then held set point in the opener against eventual runner-up Alex de Minaur before losing.

However, a better bet looks to be backing over 10.5 games in the first set.

These are two strong servers and two poor returners and it would be no surprise to see serve dominate.

It certainly has in their previous meetings, with Berrettini holding 94% of the time across those two matches and Nakashima 90%.

Three of the last four sets they’ve played have gone over the 10.5 mark, including both in Shanghai only last month, a match which saw only one break of serve.

Six of Berrettini’s last seven completed first sets have seen at least 12 games, while Nakashima’s equivalent stats are three of the last six.

A potential problem is that we’re not entirely sure of conditions in Paris this year yet.

The courts were slow 12 months ago, but so much so that player criticism means many are expecting the pace to rise this time around.

However, I do think this is a bet which stands even if the conditions are slow – last week Berrettini showed his serve is still a major weapon when it’s sluggish, while neither man is naturally great on the return.

Arthur Rinderknech v Francisco Cerundolo (Tuesday)

We always look for underdogs in this weekly column and Rinderknech looks a strong candidate in Paris.

He’s the home player here so will have that motivation to do well, while he’s also got that big first serve which tends to do damage indoors, especially if conditions are sped up this year (see above).

In contrast, Cerundolo isn’t a natural in these conditions. He’s never made an ATP final indoors and the lower bounce works against his strength, which is lining up his big forehand.

In addition, he may well already be ‘on the beach’ with no obvious motivation at this point in the season – the Argentine was poor when losing to Cam Norrie in Vienna last week, winning just five games.

Rinderknech is also 2-0 up on the head-to-head and it’s interesting to note that the last time they played, he didn’t have to face a break point.

Admittedly, the Frenchman is out of form having only just returned from an injury but his serve worked well enough in defeat in Basel last week and if that shot fires, he’ll certainly have more than a puncher’s chance here.

Andy Schooler’s best Paris Masters bets

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